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Iraq is set to hold parliamentary elections next Tuesday. Ahead of this high-stakes vote, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan paid a visit to Iraq and met with the president and senior officials. During his visit, Ankara and Baghdad signed a water cooperation deal aimed at resolving long-standing water management issues between the two neighbors.

Turkiye and Iraq have built positive momentum in their relations during Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s tenure, anchored in a series of high-level visits and a flurry of agreements. Al-Sudani visited Ankara in May to reciprocate President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Baghdad last year, which was his first since 2011. These visits turned a page in their relationship and resulted in about 40 agreements on diverse areas of cooperation. 

During Al-Sudani’s time as prime minister, Turkish-Iraqi relations have transformed from a security-oriented perspective dominated by issues of border security, Turkiye’s conflict with Kurdish militants and water resource management to a multidimensional relationship that integrates economic and developmental aspects. This approach has also transformed the Turkish narrative toward Iraq from a problematic neighbor that should be contained to a key actor that should be placed at the center of its foreign policy strategy.

Besides the momentum in relations, the regional dynamics — such as the Gaza war, Iran’s weakening influence and the emergence of a Gulf-based regional order — have also helped Turkiye and Iraq to further strengthen their ties. For Ankara, Iraq is now a neighbor that shares common security threats and mutual economic interests. Turkiye also aims to further integrate a stable Iraq into the Gulf-centered regional order that is focused on trans­regional connectivity, economic integration and stability.

For Ankara, Iraq is now a neighbor that shares common security threats and mutual economic interests

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

A key example of this effort is the signing of the four-party agreement between Turkiye, Iraq, Qatar and the UAE to cooperate on the Development Road project. Turkiye’s reconciliation with the Gulf states has also played a key role in the trilateral Turkish-Iraqi-Gulf cooperation plans.

After years of turbulence in their relations, Ankara and Baghdad have also found common ground on security issues. Last year, they signed a memorandum of understanding on military, security and counterterrorism cooperation. This agreement not only strengthened Turkiye’s security presence in Iraq but also carried the approval of the Baghdad government, which had long been critical of Ankara’s counterterrorism operations on its soil. Within this context, Turkiye last week extended its military mandate in Iraq, as well as in Syria, for an additional three years. 

Ankara wants to be part of Iraq’s emerging security architecture by providing military training and arms sales, which is likely to happen, as the two coun­tries also signed a defense industry coopera­tion pact in May that included the transfer of Turkish defense technology. Turkish National Intelligence Organization chief Ibrahim Kalin also met Al-Sudani in July to enhance intelligence-sharing and border stability. And Turkiye has included Iraq in a security framework it has established with Syria, Jordan and Lebanon to combat Daesh in the region. 

Even though Iraq appears to be rising from the ashes, phoenix-like, after a period of decline, it still faces several threats to its security and stability as it heads toward election day. It continues to face major challenges from Daesh and drug trafficking and seeks greater cooperation from regional states to address these threats. One of Iraq’s other immediate problems is water scarcity. It depends on Turkiye and Iran for nearly 75 percent of its freshwater through the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Water-sharing disputes have long strained relations between Ankara and Baghdad, blocking any sort of political and economic cooperation between them.

But Turkiye has now signed a landmark agreement with Iraq on water cooperation that will be implemented through a permanent consultation group to coordinate future water-sharing decisions. Baghdad described it as a “first-of-its-kind partnership on water management” between the two neighbors.

In Iraq, news of the deal offers Al-Sudani a political boost amid rising public and political frustration over severe water shortages. On the Turkish side, it is a beneficial deal that will allow Turkish companies to secure contracts to rehabilitate the water infrastructure in Iraq.

Ankara hopes that the elections will not fundamentally alter Iraq’s foreign policy toward Turkiye

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Many interpreted the timing of the deal as Ankara’s use of water diplomacy to maintain its influence over Iraqi decision-makers ahead of the country’s elections, positioning itself as part of the solution to Iraq’s worsening water crisis and boosting support for the Al-Sudani government, or any new government that might emerge. In any case, Ankara is seeking to maintain friendly relations with whoever governs Iraq.

Meanwhile, Turkiye is rethinking its reliance on Russian oil due to the impact of US, EU and UK efforts to clamp down on Russian oil sales. Ankara is now seeking to distance itself from Moscow in energy trade and replace it with alternative partners, such as Iraq. It has been reported that one of the largest Turkish refineries, SOCAR Turkiye Aegean Refinery, owned by Azeri company SOCAR, has recently bought four cargoes of crude from Iraq and other non-Russian producers.

Ankara now hopes that the Iraqi elections will produce a smooth outcome without fundamentally altering Iraq’s foreign policy toward Turkiye. It is unlikely there will be a major shift in Iraq’s approach to Turkiye, given the close cooperation between the two countries on security, water, oil and economic projects. Any incoming government is expected to continue these partnerships, as Iraq’s challenges are best addressed through collaboration rather than isolation.

For now, Ankara is waiting to see a newly elected Iraqi government take office and maintain the dynamics of business as usual.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz