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The European Commission on Tuesday published its eagerly awaited “Enlargement Package” report. This report offers the most comprehensive analysis on the state of EU enlargement and the progress, or lack thereof, of the candidate countries.

There are currently 10 countries that are candidates to join the EU: Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Turkiye, and Georgia. Each is progressing at a different speed toward membership. One thing is certain when it comes to adding new members to the EU: there is no one-size-fits-all approach.

Since the inception of the European project in 1951, in the form of the European Coal and Steel Community, Europe has used the prospect of adding new members as a way to bring about significant reforms in different countries. When the European Coal and Steel Community was created, there were only six members: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Over the next 53 years, only nine new members were added to what eventually became the European Economic Community and later the EU, bringing the total to 15.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact in the early 1990s, the EU decided to focus on enlargement prospects in Central and Eastern Europe. This led to what is known as the “Big Bang” enlargement in 2004, which was the EU’s single largest expansion since its inception. At that time, 10 new countries joined, including seven that were either once part of the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact.

In considerable detail, the report laid out where each candidate country stands in its journey toward EU membership

Luke Coffey

Since then, only three new members have joined — Romania and Bulgaria in 2007 and Croatia in 2013. Of course, the UK formally left in 2020 after the Brexit vote. Today, the number of EU members stands at 27. But according to the European Commission’s report, this could change in the next few years.

In considerable detail, the report laid out where each candidate country stands in its journey toward EU membership. Some, like Montenegro and Albania, have made tremendous progress and the commission expects them to join in 2028 and 2030, respectively. There was also extraordinary progress made by Moldova, which only became a candidate country in December 2022 as part of Europe’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Following recent elections, it is clear that Moldova remains committed to a Euro-Atlantic destiny.

Regarding Ukraine, the report was largely complimentary about the progress that has been made — especially under difficult wartime circumstances. It highlighted the importance of fighting corruption, which has been a long-standing problem since the country regained independence from Russia in 1991. But the report also noted several challenges. It criticized the democratic backsliding in Serbia, stating that this has set back Belgrade’s timeline for eventual EU membership. And it harshly — but accurately — described Georgia as being “a candidate in name only,” due to the ongoing democratic regression taking place in that country.

Most of the shortcomings among candidate countries center on the difficulty of combating corruption and reforming their economies. Yet it is not only the candidate countries that need reform for enlargement to succeed. The EU itself must undergo institutional changes to bring in new members, especially a large country such as Ukraine.

Voting in the European Council is, at least in part, based on a formula that includes the population of each member state. Some countries in Western Europe stand to lose influence if larger countries in Eastern Europe join. For example, upon joining, Ukraine would become the fifth-most-populous member state, followed by Poland and Romania. This would make Central and Eastern Europe more influential in the EU’s decision-making in a way that will likely make Western Europe uncomfortable.

The EU itself must undergo institutional changes to bring in new members, especially a large country such as Ukraine

Luke Coffey

There is also the issue of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. Introduced in 1962, it facilitates a complex system of agricultural subsidies that accounts for about one-third of the EU’s entire budget. These subsidies are linked to farm size and, with Ukraine holding an estimated quarter of Europe’s farmland, billions of euros in subsidies would shift eastward, away from Western European countries like France and Spain. Reforming the policy is already one of the most contentious issues in Brussels and the entry of agriculturally rich countries such as Ukraine and Moldova would make this conversation even more difficult.

Finally, there is an important geopolitical matter: the presence of uninvited Russian troops on the territory of three candidate countries: Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The EU has a mutual defense clause, similar to NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee. NATO’s defense clause has been the main obstacle to Ukraine and Georgia joining the alliance, as some fear their entry could trigger war with Moscow. The same concern could apply to the EU’s mutual defense clause, though this issue has received almost no public debate.

To address these questions — how the European Council voting formula might change, how agricultural subsidies would be redistributed and how the mutual defense clause would apply — a treaty will be required to reform the EU. Given the contentious national politics in some countries, where euroskeptic sentiment has been growing, getting all member states to ratify complex and controversial treaty changes will be difficult.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 served as a wake-up call for the Euro-Atlantic community to get its act together. Part of this effort must include using the promise of EU membership as a tool to encourage reforms and strengthen democratic governance. The process is not easy and the road is long but Europe — and the transatlantic community as a whole — will be stronger and more secure as more of its vulnerable neighbors in Central and Eastern Europe fully integrate into the Euro-Atlantic family. Now is the time for Brussels to double down on these efforts and not allow the difficulty of enlargement to slow the process.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey