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A long-standing impasse in the South Caucasus is finally beginning to break. After three decades, the borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Turkiye and Armenia, are closer to reopening than ever before. When that day arrives, it will be a game-changer for the region.

Armenia and Azerbaijan last week signed a peace framework in Washington. The two neighbors, long divided by territorial disputes, agreed to end hostilities, normalize relations and respect each other’s territorial integrity.

Besides the signatories, no other country will likely be more pleased with the peace declaration between Yerevan and Baku than Turkiye. As a close ally of Azerbaijan, Turkiye has also been engaged in normalization talks with Armenia in recent years. This process of normalization could now gain significant momentum.

Ankara welcomed the peace declaration between Azerbaijan and Armenia and said it hoped a planned strategic transit corridor, which could boost its exports of energy and other resources through the South Caucasus, will open soon. The new agreement replaces the original Zangezur Corridor plan with the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.”

This marks the beginning of a new era in the South Caucasus, which has long been vulnerable to instability and tension

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

I see this as far more than just a strategic or a political development. It holds deep significance for the three nations and their people. It marks the beginning of a new era in the South Caucasus, which has long been vulnerable to instability and tension. The small states of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia are encircled by larger neighbors, namely Turkiye, Iran and Russia, each of which have critical stakes in the region. The challenge in the South Caucasus lies in the involvement of multiple actors, both regional and nonregional. Moreover, a range of material and nonmaterial issues have long complicated the situation in the region, making it an equation with several intersecting issues.

Brokered by US President Donald Trump, the peace framework is a significant step toward solving many of these issues. However, there is a long path ahead that is fragile, given that this agreement and its outcomes do not align with the interests of all regional actors. As several analysts have noted, Russia and Iran are seen as the losers of Trump’s peace victory. Both have responded to the deal in a similar tone. While they “welcomed” the US-brokered peace agreement, they also warned against “foreign interference” — the US — that could further complicate the already-fragile situation in the South Caucasus.

Russia has long been a key player in the Azerbaijan-Armenia talks. However, in recent years, the relationships between both nations and the Kremlin have experienced a significant decline. Perhaps it was not surprising to see that the breakthrough was not brokered in Moscow. While much credit is given to the US mediation of this deal, the souring of Moscow’s relations with both Baku and Yerevan was certainly the major driver.

The road to the Azerbaijan-Armenia deal passed through Abu Dhabi, Istanbul and Washington. The UAE’s involvement highlights the growing influence of the Gulf states in the South Caucasus, while Turkiye has emerged as a key player, especially as Iranian and Russian influence has faded. Here, the most significant point is that Turkiye’s growing role in the South Caucasus is fully aligning with US interests.

Ankara was in close coordination with Washington during the latter’s efforts to finalize this peace framework. Even when the possibility of escalation flared up in April between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it was Turkiye that stepped in to prevent further conflict. Again, it was Ankara that leveraged its influence over Azerbaijan, pushing the parties toward this deal. Turkiye was concerned that any change in Armenia’s leadership could tilt the regional balance back in Russia’s favor.

The most significant point is that Turkiye’s growing role in the South Caucasus is fully aligning with US interests

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

This deal has three main significant gains for Turkiye. Firstly, its relations with the US and the EU. Turkiye’s soured relations with Armenia were long a point of contention in Washington, where Armenian lobby groups have played a significant role. These lobbies have long been influential on issues related to Turkiye and Azerbaijan and they have historically had a strong influence on US politics. This influence even contributed to the tensions in Turkish-American relations during the 1980s. Turkiye was also butting heads with Brussels over its relations with Armenia. So, one of the most contentious issues between Turkiye and its Western allies is coming to an end with this deal.

The second gain is predominantly economic, which is what brings all these nations on the table. The deal creates an opportunity to establish a new equation of regional cooperation. The corridor will link these nations to Europe via Turkiye and, as Ankara says, it will be “a very beneficial development” for regional connectivity. Besides Turkiye, Armenia will keep legal control of the corridor, but it will gain from investment and transit revenue. Azerbaijan will gain faster, cheaper export routes for oil, gas and manufactured goods to the Turkish and European markets.

Thirdly, the benefit to Turkiye’s own normalization track with Armenia. Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan stated that this deal will create an “important milestone” for normalization with Turkiye. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the signing of the deal, has also noted that the atmosphere for the implementation of agreements between Ankara and Yerevan is more favorable than ever.

Last year, during a discussion with Kostanyan on the sidelines of a regional summit, he said Turkiye and Armenia had never come this close to normalization. He is absolutely right. As a scholar who has been part of the Turkish-Armenian efforts, I believe the current context strongly favors both Ankara and Yerevan.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz