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On Friday, the Lebanese government is due to discuss and vote on a plan for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Hezbollah is in a tough spot. The group has been told it must disarm before the US has any “discussion” with the Israelis about withdrawal.

Basically, Washington is asking Hezbollah to give up its last card without giving the Lebanese government any guarantees it can use when negotiating with the group. The government is also in a tough spot. A paper presented by US envoy Tom Barrack does not offer any commitment that Israel will withdraw or cease hostilities. It states: “The US and France press for Israel’s commitment to the full implementation of this memorandum.” Barrack said that he cannot offer any guarantees. Israel made a statement with a catch. It said it “could” withdraw if Hezbollah disarms but offered no guarantees.

The Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank close to decision-making circles in Tel Aviv, published a report in early August saying that Israel should not withdraw from Lebanon or Syria and that only continuous airstrikes and occasional ground raids would ensure that Hezbollah does not rebuild its capabilities.

Hezbollah is facing growing internal pressure to disarm. Its opponents say that disarming the group is a sovereignty issue regardless of Israel, as the army is in charge of defending the country. Disarmament was clearly stated in President Joseph Aoun’s inaugural speech and in the ministerial declaration. Hezbollah’s opponents also point to the fact that the group agreed to disarm when it signed the ceasefire agreement with Israel last year.

Salam has raised the stakes and it will be difficult for him to back down. He is banking on the army disarming Hezbollah

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam had asked the army to present a plan for disarming the group by the end of August. The plan should be executed by the end of the year. Hence, the group is faced with a tight deadline. Last week, Hezbollah called for its supporters to take to the streets, but it reversed the decision shortly after to allow more time for discussions before Friday’s meeting with the government. Salam has raised the stakes and it will be difficult for him to back down. He is banking on the army to implement the plan.

However, Hezbollah has ruled out any clash with the army and has said it will resort to protest and, if necessary, civil disobedience. Lebanon’s new army commander, Gen. Rodolph Haykal, has reportedly said he will resign if he is asked to confront the group.

Everyone remembers the civil war and how violence between internal groups led to the fracturing of the army. The leadership of the Lebanese Armed Forces was asked to suppress the Palestinian leftist alliance. But Muslim and Druze members of the army who sympathized with the leftist alliance left the army and joined the Lebanese national movement Al-Jabha Al-Watania.

Hezbollah sources say the group is ready to escalate if the government insists on enforcing its decision to disarm the group. One source added that the group has taken a final decision not to disarm in the current conditions, no matter the consequences. He also said that any government decision to pit the army against the group would be a strategic mistake that would break up the state.

Obviously, Hezbollah is being pushed into a corner. It will not disarm unless it gets guarantees for its own survival

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Obviously, Hezbollah is being pushed into a corner. It will not disarm unless it gets guarantees for its own survival. The problem is that the US is pressuring the Lebanese government but not Israel. It is true that the disarmament of Hezbollah is an issue of sovereignty for the country, but for the group it is a matter of survival.

Those betting on a disagreement between parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah on the issue of arms are wrong. Some rationalize that, while Hezbollah is an extension of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Berri’s Amal Movement is not. However, the issue goes beyond being a tool for the projection of Iranian power. This is viewed as a deciding factor for the power of the Shiite community within the Lebanese power configuration. Berri made a speech last week to mark the 47th anniversary of the disappearance of cleric Musa Al-Sadr. In it, he categorically rejected the disarmament of the group and called on all parties to sit at the table to discuss a defense strategy.

Hezbollah will stop at nothing to prevent the government’s decision from being implemented. On the other hand, if Salam does not go ahead, he will be doomed politically. Hence, the upcoming battle is between Hezbollah and the prime minister. Of course, Salam is supported by the US and regional countries, but the internal Lebanese dynamics are equally important, if not more so. Additionally, except for Israel, none of the countries that have a stake in Lebanon want to see an armed internal clash.

How the standoff will play out is crucial for Lebanon. The question is, who will blink first? Hezbollah or the prime minister? The chances are that it will be the prime minister.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.