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KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank on Wednesday projected economic growth of up to 4.25 percent in the current fiscal year but warned the trade deficit would widen, even as reserves are set to climb on the back of steady remittances and foreign inflows.

The forecast comes as Pakistan implements reforms under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program approved in September 2024, which has helped stabilize the currency, ease inflation and restore investor confidence. The IMF deal is tied to fiscal consolidation, energy sector reforms, and measures to boost exports, part of a broader effort to strengthen macroeconomic stability after years of chronic external imbalances.

The economy returned to moderate growth last year, aided by improved agricultural output, lower global commodity prices, and a series of policy rate cuts totaling 1,100 basis points since late 2024. Inflation has eased from record highs, while the rupee has stabilized against the dollar after a crackdown on the illegal currency market.

“With the policy rate kept unchanged at 11 percent in the MPC meetings in June and July, the MPC expects the real policy rate to be adequately positive to stabilize inflation within the medium-term target range,” the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) released on Wednesday. 

“In the external account, the MPR expects the trade deficit to widen further and, notwithstanding continued expected growth in workers’ remittances, result in a current account deficit of 0–1 percent of GDP in FY26,” it added.

The central bank said “projected financial inflows, coupled with continued SBP interbank FX purchases, would support further buildup in SBP’s FX reserves, which are projected to rise to $15.5 billion by end-December 2025.”

Economic activity, it said, was “projected to gain further traction, with the impact of the earlier reductions in the policy rate still unfolding,” and real GDP growth was expected to range between 3.25 percent and 4.25 percent in FY26.

The MPR also flagged “potential external and domestic risks to the baseline macroeconomic outlook” and included analysis of the lag in monetary policy transmission, comparisons with global central bank decisions, and the SBP’s use of alternative data and machine learning to fill gaps in labor market and agriculture statistics.
 

KARACHI: Pakistan’s largest flag manufacturer, VIP Flags, is expecting around 50 percent growth in sales this year as the public marks the country’s 78th Independence Day with unusual zeal, fueled by celebrations of victory in the May 2025 conflict with India.

The two nuclear-armed neighbors, which have fought three major wars since 1947, engaged in their deadliest fighting in decades this May. The fighting ended on May 10 after US mediation, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government declaring victory and saying it had downed at least six Indian fighter jets.

Officials have since linked the conflict’s outcome to the heightened national fervor surrounding August 14 this year, reflected in booming flag markets and sales of other Independence Day paraphernalia.

“Our business, all the businesses have grown 50 percent,” said VIP Flags CEO Nisar Ahmed Sheikh, adding that much of his stock had been sold to marchers rallying in support of Pakistan’s armed forces during the war with India.

VIP Flags manufactures flags for domestic customers, the armed forces, and international buyers in ����ֱ�� and the UAE, and holds Guinness World Records for the largest flags made in 2004 and 2008.

Sheikh said sales this year would likely run into millions of units.

“Obviously when people were filled with passion [after the war with India] and started hoisting flags, the flags business saw an uptick and increased compared to last year,” he told Arab News. 

“It is still growing and people are putting flags on their cars, bicycles and motorcycles.”

Sheikh said the surge in sales extended well beyond flags, with market vendors incorporating Independence Day themes into a wide range of products — from shirts, mufflers and headbands to shawls, dresses and children’s clothing — creating a vibrant festive atmosphere.

“People must be spending billions of rupees on this (celebrations) and this spending boosts the economy,” the CEO said. 

In Pakistan’s commercial hub of Karachi ahead of Aug. 14, large and small flags adorned vehicles, houses and office buildings, alongside buntings and night-time illuminations. Meanwhile, federal and provincial governments are holding daily events, with top officials like the prime minister and army chief expected to attend ceremonies in Islamabad on Aug. 13 and 14.

“The last time we saw such a show of national zeal on Independence Day was in Zia’s time,” Sheikh said, referring to former military ruler Zia-ul-Haq. “We see people decorating their houses, vehicles and vicinities with flags and buntings and badges.”

Abdul Wahab, a finisher at one of Sheikh’s factories, said he expected at least a 25 percent income increase this season. 

“We are seeing a rush in the market because of this war we recently fought with India,” said the 26-year-old, who plans to work overtime to meet demand.

For lawyer Bad-e-Saba, the occasion was a chance to pass on a message to the next generation.

“The war we recently won against Hindustan is a matter of great pride for us. We want to convey it to our children so they could know where we are standing against our enemy,” she said.

“We want to tell our enemies that we can take good care of our country and our next generation will do it better.”