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The two-year war led by Benjamin Netanyahu has brought about significant changes in the geopolitical landscape and the balance of power in the Middle East. After the October 2023 attacks, Israel adopted a different policy — moving from merely clashing with Iran’s proxies to seeking their elimination. Today, three regional powers hold sway, each with its own sphere of influence and security domain.

Israel is in the process of transforming into a regional player, abandoning its old policy of focusing solely on its own security. It is now more of a military power than a diplomatic or political one.

The second winner is Turkiye. This came as a result of Iran’s exit, after Israel destroyed most of Tehran’s assets and weakened its regional influence. The vacuum left by Iran’s decline has attracted ambitious powers and here Turkiye steps in through the Syrian gateway. It now enjoys regional importance unmatched in a century — since it lost its influence in the Levant and the broader region after the First World War. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that Turkiye has returned to the region and indeed it has — but in a new form, as a participating regional power with both economic and military strength.

As a result of Israel’s initiative, a new regional order is emerging with three pillars: Israel, Turkiye and the Gulf

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

Israel has been reborn as a regional competitor after its three wars in Lebanon, Gaza and Iran. The conflict is not over, as Iran and Israel have yet to reach an understanding that would end their long-standing dispute — raising the likelihood of renewed confrontation. We must view Israel differently than we did before Oct. 7. It is now a key regional player. Prime Minister Netanyahu himself has said “there is a new Middle East.”

According to a study by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, as a result of Israel’s initiative — meaning its recent wars — supported by Washington, a new regional order is emerging with three pillars: Israel, Turkiye and the Gulf (����ֱ��). This is a natural outcome of the defeat of the Iran-led axis and the vacuum left behind after Bashar Assad’s fall in Syria and the weakening of Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq.

The US, for its part, is demanding that Iraq disarm the Iranian-backed militias. The only remaining group is the Iran-aligned Houthi militia, whose days may be numbered, as local Yemeni forces prepare to prey on it following Israeli strikes that have stripped it of much of its financial resources and military capabilities.

The centers of the three regional powers differ from the “previous” one, Iran, in that they do not carry ideologies they seek to export, nor are they backed by rival global powers as was the case during the Cold War — forces that could push them toward confrontation.

Turkiye has clear interests within its security sphere in northern Iraq and Syria, as well as investment interests in the Gulf. Meanwhile, Israel is redrawing the map of its security boundaries, beginning in Syria. Israel’s grand or Talmudic claim is not a true political project except in the sense that it will continue absorbing and then annexing the West Bank and Gaza — an objective that remains a difficult mission.

Israel will not succeed in its new policy if it continues rejecting regional integration that requires acceptance of a Palestinian state

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

It is too early to discern Israel’s broader ambitions, as it is still preoccupied with fulfilling the pledges it made after the Oct. 7 attacks. I expect it will later turn to engaging in regional alliances, having long been an isolated pole.

However, Israel will not succeed in its new policy if it continues rejecting regional integration that requires acceptance of a Palestinian state, as Riyadh previously declared in its negotiations with Washington.

Israel can retreat within its borders, as it has done for 70 years, but if it chooses to act as a regional player, it will find no escape from incorporating the Palestinians into a political project. Even with its sweeping victories and recognition by every country in the region, Israel knows this will not bring lasting security and stability. Only a political solution for the Palestinians can do that — a fact proven by events over the decades.

Militarily, Israel will continue to serve the US as a watchdog for its interests and policies. The support Washington has provided Israel in various forms — estimated at $27 billion over two years of war — though large, is not significant when compared to the $1 trillion cost of the Iraq invasion and war.

The US believes that Israel is a force worth every dollar spent on it: it has crushed Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad and the Houthis — all armed groups hostile to Washington and its allies.

However, translating these victories into political achievements will not be easy without addressing the unresolved issues.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published. X: @aalrashed