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An estimated 1 million people took to the streets of France on Sept. 18 to protest President Emmanuel Macron’s austerity policies. Such demonstrations are far from unusual in France, but the challenges the nation is facing today are big and might even threaten the foundations of the Fifth Republic.

The recent appointment by Macron of his fifth prime minister in about 21 months, Sebastien Lecornu, might have eased the political crisis in the short term. The elevation of Lecornu followed a rare vote of no-confidence in the French legislature, which resulted in the collapse of predecessor Francois Bayrou’s government.

While Bayrou’s defeat — only the second time in six decades a French government had lost such a confidence vote — was widely expected, it underlined the recent inability of French authorities to deliver a stable government.

The constitution of the Fifth Republic, which since 1958 has underpinned what is France’s third-longest-lasting system of government, was designed by Gen. Charles de Gaulle in an attempt to end the instability of the Third and Fourth Republics. But the future of the current system might be hanging in the balance following the instability of recent years.

The most recent bout of political turbulence began in the summer of 2024 with Macron’s decision to call a snap election. This resulted in a deadlocked parliament composed of three key blocs, with Macron’s centrists no longer the largest single group. The leftist New Popular Front bloc, which includes the Socialists, Greens and Communists, won 180 of the 577 seats; the Ensemble coalition of centrists founded by Macron took 159, well down on its tally of 245 at the previous National Assembly election in 2022; and the populist National Rally and the Union of the Far-Right won 142 seats.

However, the roots of the current instability go deeper. The two presidents that immediately preceded Macron, the right-of-center Republican Nicolas Sarkozy and left-of-center Socialist Francois Hollande, were unpopular single-term leaders, despite enjoying the legislative majorities that Macron now lacks. Indeed, Hollande even opted not to seek reelection, the first incumbent not to stand for a second term since the founding of the Fifth Republic. 

While Bayrou’s defeat was expected, it underlined the recent inability of French authorities to deliver a stable government.

Andrew Hammond

The failures of Sarkozy and Hollande helped set the stage for the youthful, charismatic Macron to win power in 2017 at the head of a new party, En Marche. Against all odds, he upended a long-standing, relatively stable French political duopoly of Republicans and Socialists to secure the presidency. The final rounds of voting in the presidential elections of 2017 and 2022 were the first in the country’s modern history in which neither the Republicans nor the Socialists reached the last two.

The challenges arising from this upending of the old order have become most apparent since Macron’s second term began in 2022. For much of the Fifth Republic, the incumbent president has enjoyed the support of a relatively secure legislative majority from his own party.

Macron lacked this in 2022, although his centrist bloc was at least the largest in the National Assembly until 2024. That period was marked by two years of fragile rule, during which the president was repeatedly forced to invoke Article 49.3 of the constitution. This meant pushing legislation through without a vote, including a new pensions law, to the growing displeasure of opposition lawmakers and much of the French public. This helped persuade Macron to call the snap legislative elections last summer.

A little over a year later in the eurozone’s second-largest economy and either Macron’s new prime minister, Lecornu, will be able to secure the votes needed for key legislation, including a budget, or there will be the need for yet another legislative election, which polls suggest would result in further political deadlock.

Though Bayrou is no longer in power, the fundamental question the nation is facing remains the same: how best to try to run a country, the finances of which have badly deteriorated, when there is no clear legislative majority in favor of greater fiscal responsibility?

With national debt now standing at well over 110 percent of gross domestic product, this is a question to which both Bayrou and his immediate predecessor, Michel Barnier, the shortest-serving prime minister of the Fifth Republic era with only three months and eight days in office, failed to find an answer. 

Macron finds himself in political trouble personally, given the fragmented parliament and his low approval ratings.

Andrew Hammond

The street protests this month were nothing new either. The backlash against Macron’s pension reforms in 2023, which raised the legal retirement age from 62 to 64, brought an estimated 3.5 million people onto the streets in a single day, possibly the largest demonstration in French history.

With the future of the Fifth Republic looking wobbly, Macron finds himself in political trouble personally, given the fragmented parliament and his low approval ratings, so much so that it is not clear he will be able to see out the last two years of his term in office.

The high hopes that once surrounded his presidency have been dashed, raising the possibility of a first National Rally presidential victory in 2027, which would be a massive blow to what remains of Macron’s legacy.

While the president insists he will see out the remainder of his term, there remains an outside chance he will quit early amid growing unpopularity, similar to De Gaulle in 1969. However, the most likely scenario remains that he will stay the course.

While the looming crisis might seem confined within France’s borders, this is not necessarily the case, economically or politically. Macron has, for example, alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, helped form a so-called coalition of the willing to assist Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire and ultimate peace deal with Russia.

So far at least, Macron has been able to continue to drive international policy from the pulpit of the presidency. This could change, though, especially if there is another legislative election before 2027 and it results in a more concerted parliamentary majority hostile to Macron, given that much of the far-right bloc is more cautious about support for Kyiv.

With no obvious immediate resolution in sight for the political problems, Paris faces a crisis that might only increase the fragility of the Fifth Republic. The timing of this could hardly be worse for France and other European nations as they confront growing domestic and international challenges.

• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.