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This September could be the cruelest of months for the Palestinians — an irony since Gazans just marked more than 64,000 dead as a result of Israel’s 700-day genocidal war on the enclave. But things could get even worse in the coming days and weeks. Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government is now closer than ever to carrying out its open threat to annex 82 percent, the total sum of Areas B and C, of the West Bank.

Israeli officials have threatened to retaliate against an expected flurry of European countries recognizing Palestinian statehood at this month’s UN General Assembly. That retaliation started in May 2024, when Israel responded to Spain’s recognition by stopping the Spanish consulate in East Jerusalem from providing services to Palestinians in the West Bank.

What would be a major diplomatic triumph for the Palestinians at the UN will come at a price. Israel will most likely go ahead with a decision to annex most of the West Bank, implementing Israeli jurisdiction over these areas, while isolating major Palestinian population areas such as Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarm and others, cutting them off from each other. Such a unilateral and illegal move, a direct breach of the Oslo Accords, would spell the death of the stalled peace process, the two-state solution and the Palestinian Authority.

Even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to leave the PA intact for political reasons, it would be stripped of any authority, rendering it irrelevant.

Such a unilateral and illegal move would spell the death of the stalled peace process, the two-state solution and the PA

Osama Al-Sharif

Israel and the US have criticized the countries that have announced their intention to recognize Palestinian statehood as part of a Saudi-French initiative to salvage the two-state solution. The US has hinted that the issue of annexation lies with Israel, a significant departure from decades-old bipartisan policy on the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Both Washington and Tel Aviv are working behind closed doors to convince countries like the UK, France and Belgium to “postpone” their plan to recognize Palestine as a state, without providing any ideas that might bring a swift end to the Gaza war or a commitment to the implementation of the two-state solution.

For years, Netanyahu has been distancing himself from the Oslo Accords’ legacy and commitments, while undermining President Mahmoud Abbas and the PA. Until he formed the most far-right government in Israel’s history in 2022, Netanyahu was able to keep Israel “engaged” with its Western partners while slowly encroaching on Palestinian territory through settlement building in the West Bank and allowing the financing of Hamas in Gaza to maintain it as a strong rival of Fatah and the PA.

But then Oct. 7, 2023, happened and Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and ultrareligious partners saw an opportunity to kill several birds with one stone: destroy Hamas and occupy Gaza, while waging war on Palestinian refugee camps in the West Bank and defunding the PA. As Israel’s war raged on, Netanyahu allowed extremist National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to arm tens of thousands of settlers in the West Bank to carry out a wave of terror against Palestinians in their villages, trying to force them to flee.

In the meantime, the government approved an unprecedented number of new settlements and settlement expansions, culminating in the recent approval of the controversial E1 settlement that encircles East Jerusalem. Hefty fines on the PA levied by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have left the Palestinian body teetering on the verge of bankruptcy.

Recognition should be followed by collective steps by the international community to make Israel accountable

Osama Al-Sharif

The expected recognition of the state of Palestine by European countries is too little, too late. It should have taken place years ago, when the peace process was still alive and Israel was committed, at least in word if not by deed, to resolving the so-called final status issues. Now, such recognition, symbolic at best, will be used by Netanyahu, possibly backed by Washington, to justify the illegal annexation of most of the West Bank, with disastrous consequences for Palestinians and the region.

That does not mean that the recognition should not take place. However, it should be followed by collective steps by the international community to enforce and embolden that recognition and make Israel accountable for defying it. This step should have been taken by European countries many years ago.

Spain, Belgium, Slovenia and other countries have taken steps to sanction Israel over Gaza, marking a major diplomatic blow to Netanyahu and his extremist partners. Israel should know that the annexation of the West Bank will come at an unbearable price and will leave it trapped in a series of unilateral and collective punitive measures. The public warning from the UAE that Israeli annexation of the West Bank was a “red line” that would spell an end to regional integration, including the Abraham Accords, is said to have caught Netanyahu off guard.

Israel may resort to all sorts of distractions to derail the recognition of Palestinian statehood, including launching another infiltration into southern Lebanon or southern Syria or even dragging the US into another faceoff with Tehran. Tuesday’s attack in Doha against the Hamas leadership could be an attempt to create such a distraction. But it could also embrace Trump’s latest plan to end the war in Gaza in return for shelving plans to recognize Palestine. Reportedly, Israel sent a message to the PA asking for a withdrawal of cases against it at international courts as an additional condition.

Annexation of the West Bank, just like the possible displacement of millions of Palestinians from Gaza, would trigger a series of crises across the region. The collapse of the PA would raise the question of who would be responsible for the millions of Palestinians living in West Bank enclaves.

Israel has always sought to annex the land and not the population. Its biggest challenge as a colonial entity has been the demographic element of the struggle. In Gaza, it is waging a genocidal war in a bid to force those who survive to leave their land so that Jewish settlers can move in.

In the West Bank, it is waging a war of terror against civilians, while dismantling the PA and rendering it irrelevant. Recognition of Palestine is also recognition of Palestinians’ inalienable right to self-determination and liberation of their land. These rights must be enforced by all means, so that the price of annexation is too immense for Israel to bear.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010