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The 2028 US presidential election race is already beginning to unfold, even as most politicians remain focused on next year’s midterm elections, which, historically, tend not to favor the party that controls the White House. This creates two different paths within both parties. On one side, national figures are quietly laying the groundwork for future campaigns, building donor networks, testing messages and strengthening alliances. On the other, party committees, governors and strategists are concentrating on the immediate challenge of keeping or gaining control of Congress and key state governments. Together, these overlapping efforts reveal how American politics never truly stops — it simply shifts from one election cycle to the next.

History explains the split focus. Since 1938, the president’s party has lost seats in the US House of Representatives in 20 of 22 midterm elections. The rare exceptions, 1998 and 2002, came amid unusual circumstances. The president’s approval rating is a strong predictor of midterm losses. With Republicans holding narrow majorities under President Donald Trump, the 2026 midterms loom as a referendum that could end or extend his legislative window.

The 2024 presidential election reshaped the entire political landscape. Trump returned to the White House with 312 electoral votes and J.D. Vance made history as the first millennial vice president. Their victory brought about major changes in Washington, including new policies, new people and a new direction for the country. It also created a unique opening for 2028, since Trump, having served two terms, will not be on the ballot again.

Republicans view the 2028 presidential race as an open contest, but one in which Vance starts with a natural advantage. His position in the White House and his close ties to Trump’s political base give him a head start that few others can match. In August, Trump publicly referred to Vance as his “most likely” successor, a clear sign that much of the “Make America Great Again” movement may rally around him unless the political winds shift.

Still, Vance is not the only Republican gaining attention. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a seasoned figure with years of experience in foreign policy, has increased in visibility since his unanimous Senate confirmation in January. Many in Washington see Rubio’s growing profile as a sign that the next Republican contest could feature a mix of new energy and veteran leadership within the party.

Republicans view the 2028 presidential race as an open contest, but one in which Vance starts with a natural advantage

Dalia Al-Aqidi

Beyond the current vice president, GOP governors and senators are testing messages and donor appeals. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has headlined Iowa Republican events, a classic marker for future presidential bids. Florida’s Ron DeSantis, after his 2024 primary run, still shows up in 2028 polling snapshots. Former ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley remains part of most “possible candidate” lists. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has long said he expects to seek the presidency again at some point and he has kept national media attention on his foreign policy fights. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who is not running for the Senate in 2026, is also cited as a potential contender. The shorthand is simple: there will be a crowded second tier if Vance stumbles, and even if he does not.

Recent polls confirm how the Republican race is starting to take shape. A September YouGov survey showed that 65 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would consider voting for Vance in the party’s 2028 primary. That level of openness gives the vice president a substantial early advantage, since these “would-consider” numbers often translate into greater fundraising power and broader support networks within the party.

Democrats, now out of power, view the 2026 midterms as their first real chance to slow down Trump’s agenda before the next presidential race. Still, some party leaders are already thinking ahead to the 2028 election. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has said he will give a White House run “serious thought” once the midterms are over, a timeline that aligns with his busy schedule of national appearances and policy advocacy. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has been less clear, sometimes dismissing the idea of running but recently leaving the door open, which has fueled speculation about her plans.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is often named as a rising figure. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg declined to pursue a Michigan Senate race in 2026, leaving open national options. And progressives point to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a potential standard-bearer who would bring intense grassroots energy.

One Democrat summed up the party’s current mood. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat who has won in a traditionally deep-red state, said that he might consider running for reelection in 2028. He emphasized that his focus remains on his job as governor for now, a message echoed by many Democrats who are keeping their attention on the 2026 elections before making any national moves.

Early testing also shows no clear Democratic favorite. A September YouGov poll found that Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were most likely to say they would consider Newsom or Kamala Harris in a 2028 primary, with interest in others, such as Whitmer and Buttigieg, fluctuating month to month. Other public polling in late October has floated scenarios with Newsom or Ocasio-Cortez facing Vance in close hypothetical matchups, underscoring how unsettled the race remains three years prior to the election.

If 2028 is about image and building coalitions, then 2026 is about hard numbers. Every seat in the House of Representatives will be on the ballot and history shows that the president’s party usually loses ground during midterms, especially when their approval rating falls below 50 percent. Even a slight national shift toward Democrats could make it difficult for Republicans to maintain their narrow House majority.

The Senate picture is more complicated. Republicans will be defending more seats but the Democrats will still need to flip at least four to take control. In short, both chambers are competitive but the House remains the one most likely to change.

The two parties are acting accordingly. On the Republican side, national committees are trying to grow the Senate majority despite the midterm headwinds. Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senate Committee, has touted a path to 55 seats, while also warning that states like Maine and North Carolina are challenging to hold. That dual message — “expand if possible, defend at all costs” — will guide GOP spending in 2026.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are focusing on districts where Republicans won narrowly in 2024 and on suburban areas that have been trending blue since 2018. Several of the most at-risk Republican seats are in regions outside the South, often in wealthier and more educated areas. In those districts, the heavy use of culture war messaging could hurt the GOP’s appeal. If these trends continue, Democrats may have a path to retaking the House, even without a major nationwide shift in their favor.

Over the next two years, fundraising, recruitment and control of Congress will matter far more than slogans. In American politics, strategy often follows timing, and timing favors those who win the midterm elections.

• Dalia Al-Aqidi is executive director at the American Center for Counter Extremism.