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Russia’s war against Ukraine has become a full-scale technological conflict, where  of casualties are now caused by unmanned aerial drones. After three and a half years, the war has become a nonstop cat-and-mouse game, where every new weapon system offers only a brief two- or three-month advantage before the other side develops countermeasures.

That means the age of robotic warfare is here. We are witnessing its first stage in Ukraine’s skies, on the ground and at sea. The fastest military-tech development in the world is happening in Ukrainian garages, basements and factories, where hundreds of small teams are building new-model drones and interceptors.

Many have been working nonstop since February 2022, without weekends or vacations. As soon as a new product is ready, it is deployed to the front line. Soldiers test it the next day and, within 24 hours, combat feedback is sent to developers, starting a new cycle. Some defense-tech teams even hand deliver their products to combat zones and work directly with soldiers on integration and iteration.

The conflict is being waged by two autonomous systems, each trying to outsmart the other in real time

Ragnar Sass

But Russia’s war machine is also operating at full speed, with many factories running around the clock. A clear sign of how quickly Russia can scale up effective weapon systems came on July 9, when it launched  in a single day. By the end of the month, more than  had been deployed —  than in July 2024 and 16 percent more than in June. To address this threat, at least two Ukrainian defense companies have developed artificial intelligence-powered interceptor drones that use machine learning to identify and destroy Shaheds. On the best nights, they have achieved 60 percent to 70 percent success rates.

But the fight is evolving quickly. The Shaheds, too, are getting smarter. When Ukraine deployed machine guns for air defense, Shaheds responded by flying above 3 km — well out of range. Then, in late July, Russia launched a jet-powered Shahed that can fly up to 700 kph, faster than most known interceptors. Moreover, some Shaheds are now equipped with thermal imaging, advanced processors and even autonomous swarm coordination. They appear to sense when they are being hunted, swerving and dodging to escape their pursuer.

Such is the nature of the first ever robot-on-robot war. The conflict is being waged by two autonomous systems, each trying to outsmart the other in real time. Similar breakthroughs are happening on the ground. First-person view drones with optical cable connections (meaning their signal cannot be jammed) can now strike targets up to 30 km from the front line — making any movement in that zone extremely dangerous. Both sides have begun using “sleeping drones” that wait on the ground for hours until a target appears.

As a result, unmanned ground vehicles are now being deployed at scale — mostly for logistics, resupply, evacuation, mining and even attacks. For now, Ukraine appears to be ahead in this area. In July, its 3rd Assault Brigade carried out a historic , combining first-person view drones and ground robots to force Russian troops to surrender in Kharkiv Oblast without any Ukrainian soldiers participating directly in the assault.

We have entered a new era of warfare, in which autonomous systems are central to battlefield success

Ragnar Sass

One of Ukraine’s biggest successes has been the use of maritime drones to push Russian ships out of the Black Sea. These units, too, have been upgraded over time. On Dec. 31, 2024, a Ukrainian Magura V5 sea drone armed with a surface-to-air missile  a Russian Mi-8 helicopter over the Black Sea. Never before had an unmanned surface vehicle shot down a manned aircraft. And now, some maritime drones are being used as launch platforms or communication relays for smaller drones, expanding both range and capability.

These are not isolated cases. They confirm that we have entered a new era of warfare, in which autonomous systems are central to battlefield success. Ukraine’s top drone units operate like high-performance tech startups, each with its own recruitment, training, funding and team culture. One advanced brigade includes more than 70 data architects analyzing live intelligence around the clock. These units build rapid learning loops, adapting to battlefield changes faster than traditional military units.

The most successful new player in the Ukrainian conflict is former Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s defense company Swift Beat, which  to deliver hundreds of thousands of drones this year. The company has developed one of the most effective Shahed interceptor drones and is also developing systems capable of intercepting cruise and ballistic missiles. Remarkably, many of the new technologies are being developed not by large defense contractors but by thousands of volunteers and civil society.

These kinds of innovations help to explain how Ukraine has managed to hold off a military superpower for so long. NATO and its allies urgently need to study and bolster their support for Ukraine. Robotic warfare is here and Ukraine is writing the field manual.

• Ragnar Sass, an Estonian tech entrepreneur and angel investor, is Co-Founder of Pipedrive, a developer of customer relationship management software, and Founder of the Darkstar Coalition, which launched the first pan-European defense fund focused entirely on combat-proven military products.

Copyright: Project Syndicate