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The Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in 2021 for the second time. Since then, the former insurgents have consolidated their grip on power, excluded women and girls from public life, stamped out internal dissent and external challengers, and gained debut recognition as the country’s official government from Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

The Taliban govern through decrees, but Afghans have aspirations and needs that cannot be fulfilled through edicts and ideology.

Climate change, an increasing population, and severe cuts to foreign aid will test the Taliban’s ability to lead and not just rule.

Here are five things to know about the Taliban as they start their fifth year in power:

The supreme leader has cemented his legacy

Kandahar-based Hibatullah Akhundzada has led the Taliban from insurgency to authority since his appointment in 2016. But transition and status are peripheral to what he has wanted for the past 20 years: establishing an Islamic system.

Central to this vision was his ratification last year of the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice Law, which codifies many aspects of Afghan life, including who people can befriend.

In June, Akhundzada said the Taliban had fought and sacrificed themselves for the implementation of Islamic law. It was obligatory to follow the leadership’s commands and directives, he added, and everyone was required to act within the bounds of this obedience.

His supporters emphasize his superior religious authority to issue decrees. The higher education minister went one step further in April, equating criticism of Akhundzada with blasphemy and saying obedience to him was a divine order.

“He (the leader) decides what moves and what doesn’t move, what happens and what doesn’t,” said Ibraheem Bahiss, a senior analyst with Crisis Group’s Asia program.

The Taliban’s internal differences are buried deep

There were pockets within the Taliban that initially advocated lifting bans on women and girls, or at least modifying them, to allow greater global and financial engagement. Akhundzada and his circle withstood such pressure, however, and the Taliban government has emerged from its isolation to develop diplomatic ties and raise several billion dollars every year in tax revenues to keep the lights on.

Power brokers, like Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, have been weakened. Since November, Akhundzada has had direct control over Afghanistan’s weapons and military equipment, sidelining the Interior Ministry and the Defense Ministry, which is run by Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, whose father founded the Taliban.

Haqqani, whose uncle was killed in a high-profile suicide attack last December, used to take swipes at the leadership. Not anymore. Haqqani, who heads a powerful network of his own, cannot start a fight with the Kandahar faction and win.

Political deputy Sher Abbas Stanikzai rebuked Akhundzada in January, stating the education bans had no basis in Islamic law, or Sharia. He left Afghanistan shortly afterwards and remains outside the country. He denies reports that he fled or faced arrest had he stayed.

Akhundzada has put Islamic law at the heart of his leadership, while also putting his leadership at the heart of its implementation.

“He’s made himself indispensable, and the entire movement is beholden to him,” Bahiss said.

There’s no sign of change for Afghan women and girls

Russia’s recognition of the Taliban sends a “deeply troubling” message, said Zahra Nader, the editor-in-chief of the Afghan women-led newsroom Zan Times. “It tells the Taliban they can continue to suppress women’s rights and commit systematic human rights violations without facing consequences. They are being rewarded for it. This move is a slap in the face to Afghan women.”

There is opposition to the Taliban’s policies, but people are fearful because no powerful alternative exists, she said. The Taliban “took the country by force and maintained control” through violence. Women took to Afghanistan’s streets in protest after the takeover, but these were met with retaliation.

“The absence of visible protest should not be mistaken for acceptance,” said Nader. “It reflects the extreme risks people face for dissent. The resistance is still there, quiet, private, and simmering, but public expression has been crushed through fear and force.”

The Taliban insist that women’s rights are protected. Nader says that, although there is “little faith” that the country’s rulers will change their policies, women are preparing themselves “emotionally and intellectually” for a future beyond the Taliban.

“That hope, that this brutality will not last forever, is what keeps many of them going. These women do not believe the regime will change its stance on women’s rights.”

Regional ties are transactional

It’s not trust or shared values that define the Taliban’s relationships.

Afghanistan borders six countries, many of which are trade partners and also balk at being lectured by the West on rights and freedoms. Landlocked Afghanistan is sandwiched between the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia, making it strategically located for energy-rich and energy-hungry nations.

The Taliban’s bilateral relations proceed on common ground: borders, water, transit, and security. Anti-migrant rhetoric, especially in Europe, could increase diplomatic engagement as political parties in the West seek to placate their supporters.

The UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said the Taliban’s broader diplomatic interactions were eroding the “non-recognition” approach of the West and ushering in “creeping normalization.”

The Taliban feel comfortable in the region and have found an acceptable way of operating, while the region has adjusted to their presence.

“What we’ve seen in the last four years is not real pressure (on the Taliban), but rather normalization and appeasement,” Nader said. “For those of us watching from inside and outside Afghanistan, this is not just political, it’s personal. It’s painful. It confirms our fear that the suffering of Afghan women is being sidelined in favor of political interests.”

The real test for the Taliban is yet to come

Until April, the US was the largest donor to Afghanistan, where more than half of the population relies on aid to survive. But it terminated this emergency assistance due to concerns that the Taliban were benefiting from such aid.

Thousands of Afghans, including women, will lose their jobs as nongovernmental organizations and agencies scale back their work or shut down. The loss of jobs, contracts, and the shrinking humanitarian footprint also equate to a loss in revenue for the Taliban.

One UN agency said there were “reputational and staff security risks” where humanitarian agencies were forced to suspend operations due to reduced funding, causing grievances among communities, or after partners couldn’t pay suppliers or complete contracts. Aid officials warn that frustration and an increase in tensions will trigger spontaneous violence as people compete for resources and services.

The cuts coincide with the mass expulsions of Afghans from neighboring countries, swelling the population and the ranks of the unemployed while also halting the flow of inward remittances. The World Health Organization estimates the population will increase by 85 percent to 76.88 million by 2050. Afghanistan needs to give people food, shelter, and economic opportunities.

Thomas Ruttig, from the Afghanistan Analysts Network, recalled meeting a leading Taliban figure in a “completely rundown” office during the late 1990s. The Taliban fighter told him they could live under those circumstances, but foreigners couldn’t.

“What they also say is that Afghans can live under those circumstances, which, to an extent, is true,” said Ruttig. “They were forced to live under those circumstances and have learned how to cope.” Now their means of coping — houses, land, and some savings — are gone.

The Taliban took it for granted that they won the war with the help of Allah and the population, he explained. He added that, although the Taliban were a reflection of Afghans’ ambitions, they needed to open up and listen to people’s concerns.

“But they know the more they open up, the more they are questioned, and their rule might be undermined.”

The Taliban needed to think about whether they wanted to govern the country simply to rule it, said Ruttig. “Or do we want to rule this country to make Afghanistan a better place to live? That’s probably the big question in front of them.”

SEOUL: South Korea’s new liberal president, Lee Jae Myung, said Friday he will seek to restore a 2018 military agreement with North Korea aimed at reducing border tensions and urged Pyongyang to respond to Seoul’s efforts to rebuild trust and revive dialogue.
Speaking on the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule, Lee’s overture came amid soaring tensions fueled by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s nuclear ambitions and deepening ties with Russia over the war in Ukraine.
The 2018 military agreement, reached during a brief period of diplomacy between Kim and South Korea’s former liberal President Moon Jae-in, created buffer zones on land and sea and no-fly zones above the border to prevent clashes.
South Korea’s previous conservative government suspended the deal in 2024, citing tensions over North Korea’s launches of trash-laden balloons toward the South, and moved to resume frontline military activities and propaganda campaigns. The step came after North Korea had already declared it would no longer abide by the agreement.
“To prevent accidental clashes between South and North Korea and to build military trust, we will take proactive, gradual steps to restore the (2018) Sept. 19 military agreement,” Lee said in a televised speech.
Lee said his government affirms “our respect for the North’s current system” and that the wealthier South “will not pursue any form of unification by absorption and has no intention of engaging in hostile acts.”
Lee said South Korea remains committed to an international push to denuclearize North Korea and urged Pyongyang to resume dialogue with Washington and Seoul. Amid a prolonged diplomatic stalemate with its rivals, Kim’s government has made clear it has no intention of giving up the weapons it sees as its strongest guarantee of survival and would reject any future talks on denuclearization.
“Denuclearization is a complex and difficult task that cannot be resolved quickly,” Lee said. “However, inter-Korean and US-North Korea dialogue as well as international cooperation will help us approach a peaceful resolution.”
Conciliatory tone toward Tokyo
Japan’s defeat in World War II liberated Korea from colonial rule, but the peninsula was then divided into a US-backed, capitalist South and a Soviet-supported, socialist North — a separation cemented by the devastating 1950–53 Korean War.
Lee, whose speech came days before he plans to travel to Japan for a summit with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, took a conciliatory tone toward Tokyo, calling for the fellow US allies to overcome grievances rooted in Japan’s brutal colonial rule and develop future-oriented ties. However, he noted that some historical issues remain unresolved and called on the government in Tokyo to “squarely face up to our painful history and strive to maintain trust between our two countries.”
Lee’s meeting with Ishiba will come just before he flies to Washington for a meeting with US President Donald Trump over trade and defense issues, a setup that underscores how Trump’s push to reset global trade and US security commitments is drawing the often-feuding neighbors closer.
Ishiba, eager to improve ties with Seoul, has acknowledged Japan’s wartime aggression and has shown more empathy toward Asian victims than his recent predecessors.
North Korea so far dismissive about Lee’s overtures
Lee, who took office after winning an early election in June following the ouster of his conservative predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol over a brief imposition of martial law in December, has taken steps to repair ties with the North, including the removal of South Korean frontline loudspeakers that Yoon’s government had used to blast anti-North Korean propaganda and K-pop across the border.
It’s unclear whether North Korea would respond to Lee’s overture. Expressing anger over Yoon’s hard-line policies and expansion of South Korean-US military exercises, Kim last year declared that North Korea was abandoning long-standing goals of a peaceful unification with South Korea and rewrote the North’s constitution to mark the South as a permanent enemy.
Lee’s speech came a day after Kim’s powerful sister mocked his government for clinging to hopes of renewed diplomacy between the war-divided rivals, and misleading the public by falsely claiming the North had removed its own frontline speakers as a reciprocal gesture toward the South.
Kim Yo Jong also reiterated previous North Korean statements that it has no immediate interest in reviving long-stalled negotiations with Washington and Seoul, citing an upcoming joint military exercise between the allies as proof of their continued hostility toward Pyongyang.
Analysts say North Korea clearly sees no urgency to resume diplomacy with South Korea or the United States, remaining focused on its alignment with Russia. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Pyongyang has made Moscow the priority of its foreign policy, sending thousands of troops and large quantities of military equipment, including artillery and missiles, to help fuel the war.
In his own speech marking Korea’s liberation on Thursday, Kim Jong Un praised the “infinite might” of the country’s ties with Russia at an event in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang attended by a Russian government delegation. His speech, published by North Korean state media on Friday, made no mention of Washington or Seoul.