LONDON: OPEC on Tuesday raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and trimmed its forecast for growth in supply from the US and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group, pointing to a tighter market outlook.
The outlook for higher demand and a drop in supply growth from outside OPEC+ would make it easier for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.
World oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. This year’s expectation was left unchanged.
In the report, OPEC also increased its forecast for world economic growth slightly this year to 3 percent as President Donald Trump’s administration signs some trade deals and the economies of India, China and Brazil outperform expectations.
“Economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirm the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to US-centered trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks,” OPEC said in the report.
Oil supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation — the formal name for OPEC+ — will rise by about 630,000 bpd in 2026, OPEC said, down from last month’s forecast of 730,000 bpd.
OPEC's report said it now expects US output of tight oil, another term for shale, to decline by 100,000 bpd in 2026, versus last month’s outlook for flat output year on year.
“The 2026 forecast assumes sustained capital discipline, additional drilling and completion efficiency gains, weaker momentum in drilling activities and increased associated gas production in key shale oil regions,” OPEC said.
OPEC’s report also showed that in July, OPEC+ raised crude output by 335,000 bpd, a further increase reflecting its decisions this year to increase output quotas.
