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KARACHI: A majority of financial market participants expect Pakistan’s central bank to cut its key interest rate by 50 to 100 basis points at its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on July 30, according to a new poll by Topline Securities published this week.

The findings reflect growing market confidence that declining inflation and easing global oil prices have created space for monetary easing. In its last meeting, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the policy rate unchanged at 11 percent, citing uncertainty over the federal budget and regional tensions in the Middle East. This time, a stronger consensus appears to be building toward a rate cut.

In the latest survey, 56 percent of participants said they expect a 50–100 bps cut, compared to 44 percent in the previous poll, while 37 percent now expect no change, down from 56 percent in the last round.

Topline’s own forecast aligns with the consensus: the brokerage expects a 50 bps cut, noting that real interest rates remain elevated relative to historical averages.

“With FY26 inflation expected to average between 5–7 percent, the current policy rate of 11 percent implies real interest rates of 400–600 basis points — well above the historical range of 200–300 bps,” Topline said.

The survey also offered a broader glimpse into market sentiment:

51 percent of respondents expect the policy rate to fall to 10 percent by December 2025, with another 32 percent expecting 9 percent

On inflation, 54 percent forecast average inflation between 6–8 percent, while 27 percent see it between 4–6 percent

On the exchange rate, 51 percent expect the rupee to hover between Rs285–290 per US dollar by December 2025

Topline expects July inflation to fall to 3–3.5 percent, with prices staying between 3–5 percent through January 2026 before inching up to 6–8 percent through mid-2026. Pakistan’s government has set a 7.5 percent inflation target for FY26, while the IMF projects an average of 7.7 percent.

Secondary market signals also point to easing: yields on 6-month KIBOR and T-bills have dropped by 10–39 bps since the last MPC meeting. The 6M KIBOR currently stands at 10.99 percent, while the 6-month T-bill is at 10.75 percent.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is expected to chair a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting today, Thursday, on ties between the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), according to Security Council Report, an independent entity that closely monitors the Council’s work.

The meeting is among the signature events of Pakistan’s UNSC presidency this month and falls under the broader agenda of UN cooperation with regional and subregional entities.

A presidential statement, initiated by Pakistan, is expected to be adopted unanimously during the session.

“The agreed text of the draft presidential statement notes the interest of utilising the existing and potential capabilities of the OIC, including through encouraging its member countries to resolve differences peacefully through dialogue, reconciliation, consultation, negotiation, good offices, mediation, and judicial settlement of disputes,” Security Council Report said.

“Among other issues, it recognizes the importance of OIC interaction with the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) in support of nationally owned peacebuilding efforts and commends OIC member states for their commitment to international peacekeeping and peacebuilding, including through the contribution of troops to UN peacekeeping operations,” it added.

Founded in 1969, OIC includes 57 member states across four continents and serves as a platform for collaboration on political, economic and social issues affecting Muslim communities.

Presidential statements are formal expressions of the Council’s consensus but are not legally binding. They require unanimous approval and are often preceded by complex negotiations.

In a concept note circulated earlier this month, Pakistan said the meeting aimed to take stock of UN-OIC collaboration and identify ways to deepen cooperation on peacekeeping, conflict prevention, counter-terrorism and institutional dialogue.

The note also posed questions about how the UN could help enhance the OIC’s conflict resolution capacity and better align institutional efforts on global peace and security.