Can Mamdani become the next New York City mayor?

https://arab.news/2gccx
When you land in New York these days, all the talk is about Zohran Mamdani, the young immigrant politician who last month won the Democratic Party’s nomination to be its candidate for mayor of New York City, winning easily against more powerful candidates. His challenge now is to win the mayoral election in November despite a national campaign, led by President Donald Trump, to discredit him, including threats to arrest or deport him.
At a highly polarized time in American politics, in which conservatives have the upper hand, Mamdani’s stunning success is an anomaly. He is not only a member of the Democratic Party, but also of the Democratic Socialists of America, a leftist political organization and the largest socialist grouping in the country.
He has taken on New York’s dominant landlords, real estate developers and Wall Street tycoons. At a time of nativist revolt against immigrants, Mamdani bucks that trend as an immigrant who was born in Uganda 33 years ago and who became a naturalized US citizen just seven years ago.
More astonishingly, in a city long known for its politicians’ blind support of Israel and with the largest Jewish population outside Israel, Mamdani has been a strong supporter of Palestinian rights and has criticized Israel’s Gaza campaign, vowing that as mayor he would seek to arrest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the outstanding International Criminal Court warrant. Nevertheless, he has gained the respect and votes of many Jewish New Yorkers, especially those who oppose Israel’s policies and those who prioritize local issues such as eldercare, paid family leave, rising prices and affordable housing.
Mamdani’s appeal to New Yorkers, regardless of race, ethnicity or religion, appears to be a function of his focus on economic issues and improving living conditions and housing affordability, in addition to his direct and open communication style. He addresses their everyday struggles and offers concrete, easily understood solutions, including free public transport, rent freezes and tax increases on the wealthy to fund social programs.
In a city long plagued by corrupt politicians, nothing incriminating has surfaced about his political career as an assemblyman. In the murky style of New York politics, corruption has been the norm for decades, chronicled in numerous books, movies and TV series. As such, Mamdani stands out as a rare honest politician.
Mandani’s status as a naturalized citizen and recent immigrant appeals to many in New York, where more than 35 percent are foreign born, hailing from more than 150 countries.
Historically, when candidates win the Democratic nomination for New York mayor, they are assured of winning the election because it is primarily a one-party city. In 2024, 56 percent of registered voters identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans and 18 percent as neither.
As such, Mamdani has a very good chance of winning in November, except for the fact that he is now facing a storm of opposition, not only from his New York rivals and big business, but also from across the country.
Andrew Cuomo, who lost the Democratic primary to Mamdani, may now run as an independent. Cuomo has a large following among Democrats, but he is weakened by the fact that he is a disgraced former governor who was forced to resign in 2021 in the face of numerous allegations of sexual misconduct.
Current Mayor Eric Adams may also run against Mamdani, but he too comes with baggage. In September 2024, he was indicted on federal charges of bribery, fraud and soliciting illegal foreign campaign donations. He was saved only by the Trump administration, which instructed federal prosecutors to drop the charges against him.
Conservative businessmen and anti-Palestinian politicians are supporting the rivals running against Mamdani in the November election. Led by billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, they are trying to raise astronomical funds to oppose him, despite the fact the millions they previously raised for Cuomo were not enough to stop him being well beaten by Mamdani in the primary.
However, the biggest obstacle Mamdani is facing is the campaign led by the White House, which could sink his candidacy if it persists.
After he won the primary, controversy over Mamdani’s immigration status intensified, with calls to strip him of his US citizenship. Rep. Andy Ogles, a Republican, wrote to Attorney General Pam Bondi calling for an investigation into Mamdani, saying that “he may have procured US citizenship through willful misrepresentation or concealment of material support for terrorism.” In a post on X, Ogles went further: “Mamdani is an antisemitic, socialist, communist who will destroy the great city of New York. He needs to be deported.” Similarly unhinged comments were made by Rudy Giuliani, the controversial former New York mayor.
At a highly polarized time in US politics, in which conservatives have the upper hand, Mamdani’s success is an anomaly.
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
When Trump was asked about Mamdani’s pledge to stop masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents “from deporting our neighbors,” he said: “Well, then, we’ll have to arrest him.” Calling him a “pure communist,” Trump threatened to cut off funds to New York if Mamdani becomes mayor and “doesn’t behave himself.” “We don’t need a communist in this country, but if we have one, I’m going to be watching over him very carefully on behalf of the nation,” said the president.
Trump later doubled down on the “communist” label and referred to the claims that Mamdani may have obtained his citizenship illegally. “We’re going to be watching that very carefully. A lot of people are saying he’s here illegally. We’re going to look at everything, but ideally, he’s going to turn out to be much less than a communist. Right now, he’s a communist, that’s not a socialist,” Trump said.
Trump’s distinction between communism and socialism is an acknowledgement of the fact that Mamdani would not be the first “socialist” to be elected mayor of New York, and that scores of American cities have had socialist mayors in the past without them being destroyed.
Last Thursday, Trump described Mamdani as a “communist at the highest level,” saying that he wants to “destroy” New York City, but “we’re not gonna let him do that.”
If Trump’s relentless campaign continues, it could make it difficult for Mamdani to win the mayoralty in November.
In response to the White House’s attacks, Democratic politicians have come to Mamdani’s defense. Sen. Chris Murphy denounced calls to denaturalize Mamdani, saying that “Trump will stop at nothing to protect billionaires and price-gouging corporations.” He added: “Zohran won because he ran a campaign laser-focused on putting power back in the hands of working people.”
Others have come to Mamdani’s defense, but nothing can match the White House’s influence in these matters. If he were to win in November, it would be one of the most stunning upsets in American political history.
- Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC. X: @abuhamad1