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For years, many in the international community, myself included, cautiously entertained the idea that the Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine armed group in Myanmar, might one day become part of the solution to the Rohingya crisis. As the Myanmar military regime continued its campaign of brutality against civilians, especially ethnic minorities, some looked to the AA and other rebel factions as alternative governance structures that might offer greater inclusion, stability, and even justice.

That illusion has now been shattered.

A recent report by the legal news service Jurist confirms what many Rohingya activists and civil society groups have been warning for months: the AA is committing serious human rights abuses against Rohingya civilians in Rakhine State. These include arbitrary killings, forced displacement, recruitment of child soldiers, and a deliberate campaign of terror in areas under its control. This is not a group preparing to govern responsibly; it is one repeating the junta’s crimes.

The Arakan Army has spent years cultivating an image of disciplined, strategic leadership. It gained credibility by avoiding major civilian atrocities and publicly committing to establishing local administrative control in liberated areas. But behind this facade is a brutal reality. The AA has neither the intent nor the capacity to uphold the rights of minorities, especially the Rohingya.

Not all enemies of tyranny are friends of democracy

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

This is not an isolated failure. It is a fundamental betrayal of the values the AA claims to uphold. In 2023, as the junta’s grip on large parts of the country weakened, the AA expanded its control over much of Rakhine State. International observers, including some in Bangladesh, saw this as a potential opening to begin safe and voluntary repatriation of the nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees living in squalid camps across the border in Cox’s Bazar. Those hopes now appear tragically misplaced.

The AA’s campaign of violence against the Rohingya is not just another chapter in Myanmar’s long history of ethnic conflict. It marks a dangerous shift: the decentralization of genocidal violence. Whereas in 2017 the Myanmar military orchestrated a coordinated campaign of ethnic cleansing that pushed over 700,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh, today the same tactics of forced displacement, village burnings, and extrajudicial killings are being carried out by a nonstate actor. The actors have changed, but the victims remain the same.

This reality poses a stark challenge to both regional and international actors. For Bangladesh, the findings of this report demand an immediate reassessment of its repatriation strategy. Dhaka’s interim government under Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus had been exploring informal dialogues with the Arakan Army as part of a pragmatic effort to identify local partners who could facilitate the return of the Rohingya. But it is now clear that any such partnership would place returnees at grave risk. The AA cannot be seen as a credible repatriation partner while it continues to perpetrate abuses with impunity.

For the National Unity Government, Myanmar’s civilian opposition in exile, this should also be a moment of reckoning. The NUG has sought to present itself as a future democratic authority committed to federalism, human rights, and justice. But its silence on the crimes of the Arakan Army raises difficult questions. If the NUG is serious about building a postjunta Myanmar based on accountability and inclusion, it must break its silence and demand that the AA end its attacks on the Rohingya. The time for quiet diplomacy has passed.

More broadly, the international community must reject the dangerous tendency to romanticize rebel groups simply because they oppose a military dictatorship. Not all enemies of tyranny are friends of democracy. We must hold all actors, state and nonstate, to the same standard when it comes to human rights. That means sanctions, international investigations, and targeted pressure on the Arakan Army leadership, just as we have done with the junta.

The Rohingya have endured unspeakable horrors

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Some may argue that in the fluid and fractured landscape of Myanmar’s civil war, we cannot afford to alienate potential partners like the AA. But there can be no durable peace or meaningful federal democracy without the inclusion and protection of the Rohingya. To ignore their plight once again and to subordinate their safety to geopolitical calculations is to condemn Myanmar to another generation of ethnic strife.

There is still time to change course. The US, EU, ASEAN, and UN must speak out clearly and unequivocally against the Arakan Army’s abuses. Humanitarian access must be prioritized in AA-controlled areas, and international monitors should be deployed where feasible. Bangladesh, for its part, must insist that any repatriation mechanism include strong guarantees of protection and accountability, including third-party verification, before even a single refugee is sent back.

The Rohingya have endured unspeakable horrors for generations: statelessness, apartheid, genocide, and exile. That these same people, already dispossessed and traumatized, are once again being targeted by armed actors who claim to be fighting for justice is an outrage. It is also a warning. If the international community fails to act now, we may soon witness the final erasure of the Rohingya from their homeland.

We must not let that happen.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC.
X: @AzeemIbrahim