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US President Donald Trump has called on Israel and Hamas to embrace a deal that will end the war in Gaza and return all Israeli hostages. He said last Friday that he believes a deal could be reached within a week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also hinted that the prospects of an agreement were strong. The Israeli army has reportedly said all military objectives have been achieved and that the time for a diplomatic solution has come. Tens of thousands of Israelis have returned to the streets to pressure the government to conclude a deal.

And yet, there is a foreboding sense of deja vu clouding the atmosphere days after an uneasy truce was reached between Iran and Israel. Since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has succeeded in upsetting the regional geopolitical order in its favor. Netanyahu has utilized the Gaza war to secure a range of strategic gains across the region. But now, amid the euphoria, he finds himself in a position where he is pressured domestically, regionally and internationally to end the Gaza carnage

The 12-day Israel-Iran war was a game-changer. For Trump, the US intervention was tantamount to a great victory that ended Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. But for Netanyahu, the great strategic gains his war machine secured in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and now Iran are not enough. Ending the Gaza war will open a proverbial Pandora’s box for him. Yes, he has changed the geopolitical realities of the Middle East. Iran has been humbled and its proxies hamstrung. Syria has a new regime that is open to ending hostilities with Tel Aviv, while a humbled Hezbollah is being pressured to hand over its weapons to the Lebanese army.

What more can Netanyahu ask for? The reality is that all such gains mean nothing if they do not serve the Israeli far right’s grand scheme: reoccupy Gaza and displace its inhabitants, annex the West Bank and enforce a humiliating political deal on the Palestinians.

With Iran badly hurt and side-stepped, Israel has run out of militant enemies. The Iranian leaders will have to reconsider their regional policies, rearrange their national priorities and try to reengage with the rest of the world, particularly the US. The Iranian public will eventually renew their demands for genuine economic, social and political reforms. Iran’s regional dominance will never be reclaimed.

For Netanyahu, the great strategic gains his war machine secured in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and now Iran are not enough

Osama Al-Sharif

That leaves Israel as the primary regional power. That is, after all, what the new Middle East means for Netanyahu and his cronies. Keeping Gaza on fire will serve several purposes. It will delay any investigation into the Oct. 7 calamity, which would end in assigning blame for the worst intelligence failure in Israeli history. It will mean Netanyahu does not have to call an early election, one that his party is likely to lose. And it will delay the verdict in his graft trial, protecting him from a possible jail term.

But there are other objectives behind waging war on Gaza, even when the Israeli army admits it has run out of military goals. The war has become a blackmail tool to secure political gains for Israel, such as expanding the Abraham Accords. The war has given Netanyahu’s far-right government the momentum to clamp down on the West Bank, expropriate lands, destroy refugee camps, expel UNRWA and weaken the Palestinian Authority.

Such goals are known to Washington and other Western governments. But for these governments to look the other way while the Israeli army intensifies its genocidal war on Gaza is inexcusable and shameful. Only Netanyahu stands to benefit from the wanton killing of civilians in Gaza. Only he refuses to allow humanitarian aid to enter while tens of thousands of Gazans are on the verge of starvation. Only the Israeli prime minister ignores Hebrew press reports that the Israeli army is shooting at tens of aid seekers on a daily basis as they try to get lifesaving food from an agency that he created and funded.

Trump has lauded Netanyahu, a wanted war criminal, and has even said that he wants his corruption trial to end. He has invited him to the White House in July without underlining the need to stop the war in Gaza as a condition.

This may very well be Israel’s regional moment for many good reasons. But for Israel to emerge as the regional bully, many countries will and should be worried. Those countries should be thinking that, while humbling Iran might be a good thing, having Israel emerge as the primary regional power is even worse.

Not once did Netanyahu link his new Middle East vision to ending decades of conflict with the Palestinians

Osama Al-Sharif

Not once did Netanyahu link his new Middle East vision to ending decades of conflict with the Palestinians. Not once did he offer the Palestinians anything. His approach to Gaza is one of extermination or displacement. His view of the West Bank is even worse. He sees no future for the PA, only complete annexation and an end to the dream of a Palestinian state.

Trump must become sensitive to the national security requirements of his Arab allies. At the center of these demands is a just and lasting settlement to the Palestinian tragedy. Netanyahu’s dystopian vision sees the displacement of all Palestinians from their native lands. He believes in a “Greater Israel” that requires occupying all of historical Palestine, in addition to lands belonging to sovereign Arab states.

The Israel-Iran war may turn out to be the last major regional war with the Israel-Palestine conflict as its root cause. But the emerging Israel that Netanyahu now leads cannot afford to be without wars. It even looks suspiciously at countries with which it has a peace treaty, like Jordan and Egypt, while extremist lawmakers openly claim territories in these countries as theirs.

Trump is in a position to bring Netanyahu back to reality. Now that Israel has achieved all these strategic gains, it must also be ready to accommodate the concerns of Israel’s neighbors. Topping these concerns is ending the genocide in Gaza and offering the Palestinians a path toward an independent state of their own. That will be a tough sell. But only Trump can restrain a euphoric Netanyahu at this stage. If everything else fails, the world will continue to nonchalantly watch the killing fields in Gaza, while a megalomaniacal Netanyahu carries on with liquidating the Palestinians and their cause.

•  Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010