LONON/DUBAI: The Iranian missile attack which was intercepted by Qatar on Monday night when it launched missiles against US troops stationed at Al-Udeid Air Base comes as a major setback for peace in the region.
As Iranian missiles lit up the sky over Doha in a retaliatory strike targeting the US military, a diplomatic solution to the Israel-Iran conflict, which has now drawn in the US, seemed further away than ever, with Tehran appearing to wash its hands of further nuclear talks.
Although no casualties were reported at Al-Udeid Air Base ā the largest US base in the region ā Iranās counterattack is likely to invite additional American strikes and further regional escalation.
ŗ£½ĒÖ±²„ and the UAE have both condemned the attack on Qatari sovereignty. The Saudi foreign ministry lambasted Iran for its āunjustifiableā attack, offering to deploy āall its capabilitiesā to support Doha.
Since the Israeli-Iran conflict dramatically escalated over the weekend, the mixed global response to Israeli and US strikes on Iranās nuclear facilities is testing the limits of modern diplomacy and exposing deep divisions among major powers.
This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)
What most seem to agree on is that while diplomacy is on the decline, it could have been the solution.
Experts say the fractured international reaction to the escalation reflects a shifting global order and the erosion of the post-Cold War consensus.
āThere is no āglobal responseā to speak of at this moment,ā Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News. āThis Israel-Iran war is taking place in a fractured geopolitical context.ā
He argues that divisions among the US, China and Russia āmake it next to impossible to marshal a collective diplomatic effort in the way that the world did in previous eras, like the immediate post-Cold War period of the 1990s.
āThatās why we will continue to see a lot of empty words disconnected from the actions that are actually reshaping the Middle East as we know it.ā
On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites including Natanz, Isfahan and Tehran, reportedly killing senior officials, nuclear scientists and civilians. In response, Iran launched āOperation True Promise III,ā firing missiles and drones into Israel. Several struck Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities, causing civilian casualties.
Despite initially assuring G7 allies that the US would stay out of the conflict, President Donald Trump reversed course on June 22, ordering B-2 bombers to strike Iranās underground nuclear facilities with MOP ābunker-busterā bombs ā weapons only the US possesses.
Although Trump declared that the strikes had āobliteratedā Iranās nuclear program, it remains unclear whether Iranās stockpile of enriched uranium was destroyed or relocated in time. If material and technical capacity remain, diplomacy may be the only path to prevent Iran from eventually building a nuclear weapon ā a goal the regime could now prioritize more urgently.
Even with severe military losses and the effective loss of airspace control, Iran appears undeterred. Hostilities with Israel continue, and the possibility of Iranian retaliation against US targets is growing. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that the war will not end until Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is removed from power.
Israeli rescuers search through the rubble at the site of an overnight Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam on June 15, 2025. (AFP)
The US entry into the conflict has triggered a range of diplomatic responses ā from enthusiastic support to fierce condemnation. Netanyahu praised Trumpās decision as a ācourageous choiceā that would āalter history.ā Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, called it an āoutrageous, grave and unprecedented violationā of international law, insisting Tehran reserves āall optionsā to defend its interests.
Iranās ambassador to the UN demanded an emergency Security Council session and called the strikes āpremeditated acts of aggression.ā
Russia, a close ally of Iran, āstrongly condemnedā the US action. Its Foreign Ministry labeled the strikes a āgross violation of international law,ā while Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russiaās Security Council, dismissed their impact and provocatively suggested some states might now help Iran obtain nuclear weapons.
China echoed the condemnation. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the strikes āseriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter,ā and warned of regional destabilization.
FASTFACTS
- China and Russia have condemned US strikes on Iran while the UN and Europe have appealed for deescalation.
- Analysts say without regional diplomacy led by powers like ŗ£½ĒÖ±²„, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiraling into wider war.
Chinese Ambassador to the UN Fu Cong called on Israel to halt hostilities immediately and backed a UN resolution demanding an unconditional ceasefire. Chinese analysts have also warned that the conflict threatens global trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Other voices have called for diplomacy. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a āhazardous escalation,ā stressing that āmilitary solutions are not viableā and urging a return to negotiations.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer ā positioning himself as a bridge between the US and Europe ā highlighted the danger of the war spreading beyond the region. While stopping short of endorsing the US strikes, he reiterated that Iran must not develop nuclear weapons and called for negotiations to stabilize the region.
European powers had previously been pressing for a deal requiring Iran to halt uranium enrichment, curb its missile program and stop supporting proxy groups. But Iran has rejected a full halt, claiming its enrichment is for peaceful purposes.
With Western diplomacy faltering, regional actors are stepping in. Most Arab states ā including ŗ£½ĒÖ±²„, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf states ā have condemned Israelās strikes on Iran and are working to deescalate tensions.
Still, these efforts have so far achieved little. Strikes continue, ceasefire mechanisms remain absent and attempts to coordinate sanctions or arms embargoes have stalled.
A narrow diplomatic window may remain. Recent Geneva meetings involving Iranian, US, and European officials showed conditional openness to talks. But the latest US strikes have likely hardened positions.
A plume of heavy smoke and fire rise over an oil refinery in southern Tehran, after it was hit in an overnight Israeli strike, on June 15, 2025. (AFP)
Analysts say the only viable path forward begins with renewed diplomacy, ideally starting with a ceasefire. Yet fundamental disagreements over Iranās nuclear ambitions and widespread distrust leave a comprehensive solution elusive.
Some fear that Israel, emboldened by US support, may escalate its military campaign to seek regime change in Tehran ā a move that would risk greater instability across the Middle East, as the world has seen in the recent attack over Qatar.Ģż
Others argue that Iranās military retaliation is a necessary step before negotiations can resume. However, nobody seems to safely conclude just how far this retaliation will go.Ģż
Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN that without such a response, Iran would lack both international leverage and domestic legitimacy to reenter talks.
Still, he later added: āDiplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future.ā
With Iran and Israel entrenched and global powers divided, prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear slim. Yet Katulis believes regional āswing statesā ā such as ŗ£½ĒÖ±²„ and the UAE ā could help shift the dynamic.
āOne of the biggest brakes on further escalation lies right in the heart of the Middle East itself,ā he said. āThe key āswing statesā like ŗ£½ĒÖ±²„ and the UAE could lead more regional collective efforts to avoid further escalation by working publicly and quietly with the main combatants to find pathways toward a diplomatic settlement.ā
In geopolitical terms, these āswing statesā balance relationships with Washington, Moscow and Beijing ā and can influence outcomes through neutrality or engagement. Katulis believes Riyadh, in particular, could help change the calculus.
Right now, he said, Israel and Iran āhave more incentives to engage in military action than they do to pursue diplomacy.ā But āthe key powers in the region like ŗ£½ĒÖ±²„ could do even more than they are already doing to change the calculus for Israel and Iran.ā
ŗ£½ĒÖ±²„ has condemned Israelās actions as violations of international law and warned that continued escalation threatens long-term regional stability. The Kingdom has urged the UN Security Council to take meaningful steps to prevent further deterioration and has refused to allow its airspace to be used in military operations ā a clear signal of its neutrality and strategic caution.
Israeli first responders gather in front of a building destroyed by an Iranian strike in Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025. (AFP)
Looking ahead, the stakes remain dangerously high. Maksad has warned that unchecked escalation could have serious consequences.
āThe last step in that escalatory ladder is to go after American bases, whether it is in the GCC, or perhaps even attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20 percent of global energy passes through,ā he told CNN.
As the war drags on, the fragmented international response highlights the fragility of global diplomacy and the difficulty of conflict resolution in an increasingly multipolar world.
For Tehran, halting enrichment altogether would not only undermine decades of strategic investment but also damage regime legitimacy. As Maksad put it, Tehranās āentire prestige rests on enrichment.ā
Still, he sees a potential way forward: Focusing not on enrichment itself, but on preventing a weapon. āThat,ā he said, āopens up the possibility of a negotiated outcome.ā
Ģż
