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Pakistan FY26 budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines — analysis

Pakistan FY26 budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines — analysis
Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb (3R) speaks during a meeting with the visiting IMF delegation, led by Jihad Azour (4L), at the Finance Division in Islamabad on May 21, 2025. (Photo courtesy: Handout/Finance Ministry)
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Updated 22 May 2025

Pakistan FY26 budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines — analysis

Pakistan FY26 budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines — analysis
  • Islamabad is currently holding budget talks with the IMF, likely to conclude this week
  • Government has committed to fiscal consolidation in FY26 budget to ensure debt sustainability

KARACHI: Pakistan will continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines and bring untaxed and low tax areas into the tax net as it announces its federal budget for fiscal year 2025-26 next month, a top Pakistani brokerage house said in a budget review

Islamabad is currently holding budget talks with the IMF, which earlier this month approved a loan program review for Pakistan, unlocking a $1 billion payment which the State Bank of Pakistan said had been received. A fresh $1.4 billion loan was also approved under the IMF’s climate resilience fund.

“We expect this budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines and bring untaxed/low tax areas in tax net,” Topline Securities said in a budget review.

The brokerage house said the government had committed with the IMF to continue with fiscal consolidation in the FY26 budget to ensure debt sustainability.

“The government targets primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP (vs. 2.0-2.1% of GDP in FY25), a surplus for the third consecutive year after two decades. The government has also committed to use any windfall dividend expected from the central bank over and above 1% of GDP to retire debt,” the review said.

The analysis predicted the Federal Board of Revenue’s FY26 tax revenue growth target could be the lowest in six years.

“FBR revenue target is expected at Rs14.1-14.3 trillion, up 16-18% YoY, which will be the lowest percent growth in the last 6 years,” it said.

The FBR has achieved a five-year revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate of 25% from FY21-25.

“We believe, out of this required 16-18% growth, approximately 12% would be achieved through autonomous growth driven by real GDP growth of 3.6% and inflation of 7.7%. The remaining 4-5% growth translates into additional tax measures of Rs500-600 billion,” the analysis estimated.

Revenue measures expected include a change in the GST calculation price of sugar, the likely introduction of taxes on pension, retailers and wholesalers and a likely increase in federal excise duty on cigarettes, fertilizer products and pesticides by 500bps. A tax on the income of freelancers, vloggers and YouTubers is also expected.

“Government is expected to announce some relief measures namely (1) extension in exemption limit on salary or reduction of tax rate by 2.5% for all salary brackets, (2) rationalization of duties on trade, (3) likely housing finance subsidy, (4) inflation adjustment in minimum salary and unconditional cash transfer, and (5) some rationalization in super tax,” the analysis said.

It said the government would reportedly set a GDP growth target of 3.5-4.5% “while we expect GDP growth target for FY26 at 3.5-4.0% led by services.”

The analysis predicted the budget was likely to be neutral for the stock market in the short-term, neutral to positive for cement, steel, oil and gas, consumers, and independent power producers, and neutral for oil marketing firms, IT, banks, pharma, autos and textile.

Pakistan’s 37-month $7 billion IMF loan program, approved on Sept. 25, 2024, aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. Key priorities include entrenching macroeconomic sustainability through implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening of the tax base; advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; reforming state-owned enterprises and improving public service provision and energy sector viability; and building climate resilience.

Highlighting progress in Pakistani policies to stabilize the economy, the IMF said earlier this month when it approved the latest tranche that Pakistan’s fiscal performance had been strong, with a primary surplus of 2.0% of GDP achieved in the first half of FY25, keeping Pakistan on track to meet the end-FY25 target of 2.1% of GDP.

“Inflation fell to a historic low of 0.3% in April, and progress on disinflation and steadier domestic and external conditions, have allowed the State Bank of Pakistan to cut the policy rate by a total of 1100 bps since June 2025,” the IMF added.

“Gross reserves stood at $10.3 billion at end-April, up from $9.4 billion in August 2024, and are projected to reach $13.9 billion by end-June 2025 and continue to be rebuilt over the medium term.”


Islamabad says Kuwait has lifted 19-year visa ban on Pakistanis 

Islamabad says Kuwait has lifted 19-year visa ban on Pakistanis 
Updated 28 May 2025

Islamabad says Kuwait has lifted 19-year visa ban on Pakistanis 

Islamabad says Kuwait has lifted 19-year visa ban on Pakistanis 
  • Kuwait stopped issuing visas to Pakistanis citing difficult security conditions 
  • Pakistan and Kuwait are in the advanced stages of finalizing a new labor MoU

ISLAMABAD: The government of Pakistan confirmed this week Kuwait had lifted a 19-year-long ban on visas for Pakistani citizens and would resume issuing work, family, visit, tourist, and business visas.

Kuwait had stopped issuing visas to citizens of Pakistan, Iran, Syria and Afghanistan, citing difficult security conditions in the countries.

“Kuwait has lifted 19-year visa ban on Pakistani citizens, resuming the issuance of work, family, visit, tourist, and business visas, a major diplomatic achievement and a step toward deeper bilateral cooperation,” the government of Pakistan announced on its official X account. 

“This landmark decision paves the way for enhanced people-to-people contact, workforce opportunities, and stronger economic ties between the two nations.”

In May 2021, Kuwait decided to resume granting visas to Pakistani families and businessmen. It was also decided during the meeting that Kuwait would issue technical visas for Pakistani workers in the medical and oil fields.

Pakistan’s ambassador to Kuwait Dr. Zaffar Iqbal issued a statement on the resumption of visas.

“Community members have already begun receiving approvals, marking a positive step forward,” he said.

Separately, the ambassador said Pakistan and Kuwait were in the advanced stages of finalizing a new labor memorandum of understanding (MoU).

Pakistan established diplomatic relations with Kuwait in October 1963.


At trilateral summit, Pakistan, Turkiye and Azerbaijan pledge to work for ‘strategic partnership’

At trilateral summit, Pakistan, Turkiye and Azerbaijan pledge to work for ‘strategic partnership’
Updated 28 May 2025

At trilateral summit, Pakistan, Turkiye and Azerbaijan pledge to work for ‘strategic partnership’

At trilateral summit, Pakistan, Turkiye and Azerbaijan pledge to work for ‘strategic partnership’
  • Pakistani PM is on regional diplomacy tour to Iran, Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan 
  • Turkiye and Azerbaijan openly pledged support for Pakistan during latest India conflict 

ISLAMABAD: The leaders of Pakistan, Turkiye and Azerbaijan met on Wednesday at a trilateral summit in Lachin and pledged to work together for the goal of economic development and regional prosperity and to turn their brotherhood into a “strategic partnership.”

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Azerbaijan on Tuesday on the third stopover of a five-day regional diplomacy tour that also saw him visit Iran and Turkiye. Turkiye is a longtime ally of Pakistan, while Baku and Islamabad have moved closer in recent years with a flurry of visits and bilateral agreements.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev had openly pledged support for Pakistan during its latest military confrontation with archrival India earlier this month.

“I am confident that our time-tested relationship would not only be beneficial for the wellbeing of our own people but also contribute to peace and prosperity in the region and beyond,” Sharif said during his address at the summit. 

“This trilateral format is both very timely and of great importance and … gives us the necessary political ownership and the impetus to move forward collectively and in unison in all spheres of our common interest.”

Addressing the summit, the president of Azerbaijan said the three leaders had come together for the “strategic development” of their countries and to work on “shared goals.”

“Political, valid economic, energy, mutual investment, transportation, defense, agriculture, information, technology, and other spheres are the ones where there are ample opportunities to advance cooperation through joint projects,” Aliyev said, adding that Azerbaijan had invested over $20 billion in the Turkish economy and was prepared to invest $2 billion into Pakistan’s.

He also said Azerbaijan envisaged closer cooperation with Pakistan’s defense industry. 

“We do believe there is great potential and it’s of great importance. Joint military exercises and projects in the defense industry amplify the potential of our armed forces or defense cooperation ensures peace and stability across a vast geography,” Aliyev said. 

There have been widespread reports in recent weeks that Azerbaijan may have dramatically increased its procurement from Pakistan of JF-17 “Thunder” light multirole fighter aircraft from an initial 16 units to a staggering 40, in a deal reportedly valued at $4.2 billion. 

The aircraft in question are said to be the latest and most advanced iteration of the JF-17 family— Block III— a 4.5-generation fighter co-developed by Pakistan and China and hailed as one of the most cost-effective combat aircraft in the current global market.

“STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP”

Speaking at the summit, Erdogan said the three countries had a combined population of approximately 350 million and an economic size of $1.5 trillion. 

“I would like to particularly emphasize that we stand behind each and every step toward transforming our relations into a strategic partnership,” he said. 

“Our foreign ministers will carry out the required work to institutionalize our trilateral cooperation, and they will prepare a strong framework that reflects the common vision of our countries, particularly in the fields that shape our common agenda such as trade, investments, transportation, energy, defense, industry, and the fight against terrorism.”

He said Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan would institutionalize their cooperation by holding regular trilateral summits and ministerial meetings.

“We will deepen our cooperation in the field of defense and maintain our common commitment to fight against terrorism and against transnational threats,” the Turkish president said. 

“We will aim to take joint steps in the fields of trade facilitation, investment promotion and digital transformation. In the field of transportation, which constitutes a quite strategic dimension of our cooperation, we will jointly contribute to projects such as the development of roads, the Middle Corridor and the North South Transport Corridor.”

The Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, is a major trade route connecting China to Europe. It passes through several countries, including Türkiye, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, offering an alternative to the Northern Corridor and the Suez Canal. Türkiye plays a significant role in the Middle Corridor, particularly at the European end, and has invested in infrastructure to improve its connectivity to Central Asia and Europe.

The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a 7,200-kilometer multi-modal transportation network that connects India, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia, with routes also extending to Central Asia and Europe. It utilizes ship, rail, and road routes to facilitate the movement of freight between these countries.


At least 22 wounded in drone strike in northwestern Pakistani district — officials

At least 22 wounded in drone strike in northwestern Pakistani district — officials
Updated 28 May 2025

At least 22 wounded in drone strike in northwestern Pakistani district — officials

At least 22 wounded in drone strike in northwestern Pakistani district — officials
  • Suspected drone strike killed four children in North Waziristan earlier in May, prompting province-wide protests
  • In latest incident, unidentified quadcopter detonated explosive device in Azam Warsak town in South Waziristan

PESHAWAR: At least 22 people, including children, were wounded in a suspected quadcopter attack near a volleyball ground in Pakistan’s northwestern South Waziristan district, police said on Wednesday, adding that it was unclear who was behind the assault. 

Earlier this month, a suspected drone strike killed four children and wounded five others in North Waziristan district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, prompting thousands of residents to stage a protest by placing the children’s bodies on a main road to demand justice. It wasn’t immediately clear who was behind the May 5 attack in the town of Mir Ali, which has been a stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban in the past. 

In the latest incident, Lower South Waziristan police spokesperson Habib Islam told Arab News an unidentified quadcopter drone detonated an explosive device on Tuesday evening in the town of Azam Warsak.

The blast occurred just before sunset as residents, including children, were playing a volleyball game nearby, leaving approximately two dozen civilians wounded.

“The origin and operators of the drone remain undetermined at this stage,” Islam said. 

“A comprehensive joint investigation involving security forces and civilian authorities is currently underway to establish the chain of command behind this attack. We will pursue all evidentiary leads to conclusively identify and bring the perpetrators to justice.”

Dr. Jan Muhammad Shinwari, the Medical Superintendent at Wana’s District Headquarters Hospital (DHQ) in South Waziristan, said 22 injured had been admitted to the facility.

“Most of the injured have now been discharged after being provided medical treatment,” Shinwari told Arab News. “Two of the children were referred to the adjacent Dera Ismail Khan hospital who were now said to be in stable condition.”

Zubair Wazir, a Member of the National Assembly (MNA) from the South Waziristan district, called the drone strike “a tragic development.”

“It was brutal, inhumane and senseless,” he told Arab News, condemning the killing of civilians on Pakistani soil.

“We hold the government responsible for the deaths of innocent people attacked while playing volleyball. This time, we will launch a forceful protest to prevent such incidents from recurring.”

Wazir said he had held a series of meetings with top security and civil officials, who assured him a thorough investigation would be conducted and those responsible held accountable.

Local elder Saleh Jan called the attack a “flagrant human rights violation.”

“This attack has poured fuel on the fire of local anger. We are trapped in a nightmare, helpless, with no clear path to stop these atrocities,” he said. “Who will answer for our safety? Who will shield us from the next strike?”

There have been civilian casualties in military strikes in some parts of the country in recent years. In March, 11 people, including women and children, were killed when a drone attack targeted a house in the northwestern city of Mardan.

A statement by the provincial government at the time had only said that there was “collateral damage” in an operation that was conducted to target militants in a remote village. Residents in March also rallied until the government agreed to compensate the victims’ families.

Officials say militants have also been using quadcopters to target troops, but it was still unclear who was responsible for the drone attacks in Mir Ali and Azam Warsak.

The latest civilian casualties came amid ongoing military operations against the Pakistani Taliban, which have a strong presence in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan. The Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, are a separate insurgent group from the Afghan Taliban, and they often target troops in the region.

Several districts in KP, especially North and South Waziristan, were long a base for the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups. The TTP have stepped up attacks in the region in recent months.

With inputs from AP


Pakistan says Modi’s ‘weaponizing’ of water against international norms, its own global ambitions

Pakistan says Modi’s ‘weaponizing’ of water against international norms, its own global ambitions
Updated 28 May 2025

Pakistan says Modi’s ‘weaponizing’ of water against international norms, its own global ambitions

Pakistan says Modi’s ‘weaponizing’ of water against international norms, its own global ambitions
  • Modi has upped rhetoric in standoff over water access triggered by militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir 
  • Pakistan has said any attempt by India to stop or block the flow of its waters would be seen as an “act of war“

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Foreign Office said on Thursday Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s most recent remarks “weaponizing” the waters of the Indus river were against international norms and exposed the “stark contrast” between India’s conduct in the region and its declared global ambitions.

Modi on Tuesday upped the rhetoric in a standoff over water access triggered by a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in April in which 26 tourists were killed. New Delhi said Islamabad was behind the attack — a charge it denies — and announced a raft of punitive measures including unilaterally suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. 

Any move to stop Pakistan accessing the water would have a devastating impact. The Indus treaty, negotiated by the World Bank in 1960, guarantees water for 80 percent of Pakistan’s farms from three rivers that flow from India.

The nuclear-armed neighbors have already clashed in their worst military fighting in nearly three decades before agreeing to a ceasefire on May 10.

“His [Modi] references to weaponizing water, a shared, treaty-bound resource, reflect a troubling departure from international norms and a stark contrast between India’s conduct in the region and its declared global ambitions,” the foreign office said in a statement. 

“Pakistan urges India to return to the core principles of international order including respect for sovereign rights of others and its treaty obligations, as well as restraint in both language and action.”

The foreign office said such “jingoism” by Modi would undermine long-term peace and stability. 

“India’s youth, often the first casualty of chauvinistic nationalism, would do well to reject the politics of fear and instead work toward a future defined by dignity, reason, and regional cooperation.” 

Modi on Tuesday amplified the resolve to use water from the Indus river system for India, saying provisions of the “badly negotiated” Indus Waters Treaty were prejudicial to the interests of the country and did not even let it use the waters earmarked for it. 

Calling out “decades of silence” over the treaty, he said it had left Indian-administered Kashmir’s dams clogged and crippled. 

Pakistan’s Attorney General, Mansoor Usman Awan, said earlier this month India had written to Pakistan in recent weeks citing population growth and clean energy needs as reasons to modify the treaty. But he said any discussions would have to take place under the terms of the treaty.

Islamabad maintains the treaty is legally binding and no party can unilaterally suspend it, Awan said.

“As far as Pakistan is concerned, the treaty is very much operational, functional, and anything which India does, it does at its own cost and peril as far as the building of any hydroelectric power projects are concerned,” Awan told Reuters.

India and Pakistan have shared a troubled relationship since they were carved out of British India in 1947, and have fought three wars, two of them over the Himalayan region of Kashmir, which they both claim in full but rule in part.

India accuses Islamabad of backing separatists in Kashmir, a claim it denies, in turn accusing New Delhi of backing separatist and other insurgents in Pakistan. 


Pakistan Council of Islamic Ideology declares bill to criminalize child marriages ‘un-Islamic’

Pakistan Council of Islamic Ideology declares bill to criminalize child marriages ‘un-Islamic’
Updated 28 May 2025

Pakistan Council of Islamic Ideology declares bill to criminalize child marriages ‘un-Islamic’

Pakistan Council of Islamic Ideology declares bill to criminalize child marriages ‘un-Islamic’
  • Under new law, minimum age for marriage is 18 for both men and women in the federal capital 
  • Prison terms of up to seven years introduced for people who facilitate or coerce children into early marriages

ISLAMABAD: A constitutional council that advises the Pakistani government on the compatibility of laws with Islam has this week declared a landmark bill to criminalize child marriages in the federal capital of Islamabad as being “un-Islamic.”

The National Assembly on Friday unanimously passed the Islamabad Capital Territory Child Marriage Restraint Bill to curb child marriages and protect girls from becoming mothers in their teens. The bill, tabled by MNA Sharmila Faruqui, will be signed into law by the president in the coming days and replace legislation introduced during British colonial rule.

Under the new law, the minimum age for marriage is 18 for both men and women in Islamabad where underage marriage will now be considered a criminal offense. Previously, the minimum age was 16 for girls and 18 for boys. Up to seven years in prison has been introduced among other punishments for people, including family members, clerics and registrars, who facilitate or coerce children into early marriage. Any sexual relations within a marriage involving a minor, with or without consent, will be deemed statutory rape, while an adult man found to have married a girl could face up to three years in prison.

“The bill introduced by Madam Sharmila Faruqi … has been declared un-Islamic,” the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) said in a statement issued by its media wing after the body held its 243rd session on May 27–28 at its headquarters in Islamabad.

Clauses of the bill, such as fixing the age limit for marriage and declaring marriage below the age of 18 as child abuse and punishable, do not conform with Islamic injunctions, the CII said.

In Pakistan, 29 percent of girls are married by 18 , according to a 2018 demographic survey, and 4 percent marry before the age of 15 compared with 5 percent for boys, according to Girls Not Brides, a global coalition aiming to end child marriage. The country is among the top 10 worldwide with the highest absolute number of women who were married or in a union before the age of 18.

Girls who marry are less likely to finish school and are more likely to face domestic violence, abuse and health problems. Pregnancies become higher risk for child brides, with a greater chance of fistulas, sexually transmitted infections or even death. Teenagers are more likely to die from complications during childbirth than women in their 20s.