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ISLAMABAD: Authorities in Pakistan’s Punjab province on Wednesday issued a high alert for heavy rains and possible flooding, warning that the seventh spell of the summer monsoons is forecast to be stronger than earlier phases and will persist through much of next week.

Pakistan’s government has reported over 300 deaths and 1,600 damaged houses due to the floods, heavy rain and other weather since June 26.

On Wednesday, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said “widespread rain-wind/thundershower (with scattered heavy falls at times very heavy) is expected” in upper Punjab from Aug. 13 to 17, with showers spreading to most plains districts from Aug. 18 to 21.

Areas at risk include Murree, Galiyat, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Narowal, Kasur, Faisalabad, and Sahiwal, among others.

“More rain-wind/thundershower is predicted in the country in coming days; monsoon activity is likely to intensify during the upcoming week,” the PDMA advisory said, citing the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

Moist currents from the Bay of Bengal are forecast to strengthen from Aug. 17, with a westerly wave influencing upper parts of the country.

DG PDMA Punjab Irfan Ali Kathia instructed all commissioners and deputy commissioners to remain “alert” and keep emergency control rooms staffed round the clock.

The agency warned of “urban flooding in low-lying areas of Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore and Sialkot” and possible flash floods in rivers and hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan from Aug. 18 to 21.

Landslides are also possible in Murree and Galiyat, while heavy winds could damage weak structures, rooftops and power infrastructure.

Hydrological data from Aug. 13 showed low flood levels in the Indus River at Kalabagh, Tarbela and Chashma, and in the Chenab at Khanki, with normal flows in the Jhelum, Ravi and Sutlej. Mangla Dam was at 65 percent capacity and Tarbela at 96 percent, while Indian reservoirs were around 70 percent full.

Since late June, monsoon-related incidents in Punjab have killed 164 people, injured 582, damaged 216 homes and killed 121 livestock, according to PDMA records.

The agency urged the public to follow safety instructions, keep children away from rivers and canals, and avoid crossing flowing water during floods.

Pakistan’s June–September monsoon brings around 70 percent of annual rainfall, but climate change is making seasonal patterns more erratic and intense. Scientists say warmer air holds more moisture, increasing the risk of extreme downpours, while glacial melt and poor drainage heighten flood vulnerability.

In 2022, record monsoon rains and glacial floods inundated a third of the country, killing at least 1,700 people and causing damage estimated at more than $30 billion.

Last week, a study by World Weather Attribution, a group of international scientists who study global warming’s role in extreme weather, found that rainfall from June 24 to July 23 in Pakistan was 10 percent to 15 percent heavier because of climate change, leading to many building collapses in urban and rural Pakistan.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Tuesday warned India against restricting the flow of its share of the Indus waters, saying New Delhi could not “snatch even a drop” of water from Pakistan.

India announced in April it was putting the 1960 World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which ensures water for 80 percent of Pakistani farms, in abeyance a day after an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan, an allegation Islamabad denies.

The IWT grants Pakistan rights to the Indus basin’s western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — for irrigation, drinking, and non-consumptive uses like hydropower, while India controls the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — for unrestricted use but must not significantly alter their flow. India can use the western rivers for limited purposes such as power generation and irrigation, without storing or diverting large volumes, according to the agreement.

Pakistan has previously said the treaty has no provision for one side to unilaterally pull back and that any blocking of river water flowing to Pakistan will be considered “an act of war,” while Islamabad said on Monday that the Court of Arbitration in the Hague last week issued a ruling with regard to the design of new Indian hydro-electric power stations on the western rivers that was in line with Pakistan’s interpretation of the relevant provisions of the treaty.

“I want to tell this to the enemy today that you threaten to cut off our water, remember this you cannot snatch even a drop of Pakistan’s share [of Indus water],” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said at a ceremony in Islamabad. “If you attempt such an act, we will again teach you such a lesson that you will regret it.”

Pakistan had brought a case to the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2023 over the design of Indian hydro-power projects on rivers that were awarded to Pakistan under the IWT.

In a ruling on Friday that was posted on its website on Monday, the court said it had jurisdiction over the dispute and ruled the treaty “does not permit India to generate hydro-electric power on the Western Rivers based on what might be the ideal or best practices approach for engineering” of these projects.

Instead, the design of these projects must adhere “strictly” to the specifications laid down in the treaty, the court said.

Pakistan’s Attorney General, Mansoor Usman, said in an interview on Tuesday that, by and large, the court had accepted Pakistan’s position, especially on the design issue of the new hydropower projects.

“I am sure it is clear now that India cannot construct any of these projects in violation of the court’s decision,” he told Reuters.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry said late Monday that the court ruling said that India had to “let flow” the waters of the three rivers for Pakistan’s unrestricted use.

The court said its findings are final and binding on both countries, according to the foreign office statement.

But an Indian official pointed to a June statement by India’s foreign ministry, which said that New Delhi has never recognized the existence in law of the Court of Arbitration.

Pakistan and India engaged in a four-day military conflict in May this year, attacking each other with fighter jets, missiles, drones and artillery. The standoff killed around 70 people on both sides before the United States announced a ceasefire on Monday, although India denies agreeing to the truce on the request of Washington.