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Trump’s previous tariff push terrified the world economy. He’s betting this time is different

Trump’s previous tariff push terrified the world economy. He’s betting this time is different
Containers are seen at the International Container Terminal in Surabaya, Indonesia on July 7, 2025. (AFP)
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Updated 09 July 2025

Trump’s previous tariff push terrified the world economy. He’s betting this time is different

Trump’s previous tariff push terrified the world economy. He’s betting this time is different
  • With Trump’s 90-day tariff negotiation period ending, he has so far sent letters to 14 countries that place taxes on imported goods ranging from 25 percent to 40 percent

WASHINGTON: When President Donald Trump last rolled out tariffs this high, financial markets quaked, consumer confidence crashed and his popularity plunged.
Only three months later, he’s betting this time is different.
In his new round of tariffs being announced this week, Trump is essentially tethering the entire world economy to his instinctual belief that import taxes will deliver factory jobs and stronger growth in the US, rather than the inflation and slowdown predicted by many economists.
On Tuesday, he told his Cabinet that past presidents who hadn’t aggressively deployed tariffs were “stupid.” Ever the salesman, Trump added that it was “too time-consuming” to try to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world, so it was just easier to send them letters, as he’s doing this week, that list the tariff rates on their goods.
The letters marked a change from his self-proclaimed April 2 “Liberation Day” event at the White House, where he had posterboards with the rates displayed, a choice that led to a brief market meltdown and the 90-day negotiating period with baseline 10 percent tariffs that will end Wednesday. Trump, instead, chose to send form letters with random capitalizations and punctuation and other formatting issues.
“It’s a better way,” Trump said of his letters. “It’s a more powerful way. And we send them a letter. You read the letter. I think it was well crafted. And, mostly it’s just a little number in there: You’ll pay 25 percent, 35 percent. We have some of at 60, 70.”
When Trump said those words, he had yet to issue a letter with a tariff rate higher than 40 percent, which he levied Monday on Laos and Myanmar. He plans to put 25 percent tariffs on Japan and South Korea, two major trading partners and allies deemed crucial for curbing China’s economic influence. Leaders of the 14 countries tariffed so far hope to negotiate over the next three weeks before the higher rates are charged on imports.
“I would say that every case I’m treating them better than they treated us over the years,” Trump said.
Three possible outcomes
His approach is at odds with how major trade agreements have been produced over the last half-century, detailed sessions that could sometimes take years to solve complex differences between nations.
There are three possible outcomes to this political and economic wager, each of which could drastically reshape international affairs and Trump’s legacy.
Trump could prove most economic experts wrong and the tariffs could deliver growth as promised. Or he could retreat again on tariffs before their Aug. 1 start in a repeat of the “Trump Always Chickens Out” phenomenon, also known as TACO. Or he could damage the economy in ways that could boomerang against the communities that helped return him to the White House last year, as well as hurt countries that are put at a financial disadvantage by the tariffs.
Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, said Trump’s letters had “extended his tariff purgatory for another month,” essentially freezing in place the US economy as CEOs, foreign leaders and consumers are unclear of Trump’s actual strategy on foreign trade.
“The TACO negotiating tactic pioneered by Trump is making his threats less and less credible and reducing our trading partners’ willingness to even meet us halfway,” Wyden said. “There’s no sign that he’s any closer to striking durable trade deals that would actually help American workers and businesses.”
So far, the stock and bond markets are relatively calm, with the S&P 500 stock index essentially flat Tuesday after a Monday decline. Trump is coming off a legislative win with his multitrillion-dollar income tax cuts. And he’s confidently levying tariffs at levels that previously rocked global markets, buoyed by the fact that inflation has eased so far instead of accelerating as many economists and Democratic rivals had warned.
“By floating tariffs as high as 40 percent to even 100 percent, the administration has ‘normalized’ the 25 percent tariff hikes — yet this is still one of the most aggressive and disruptive tariff moves in modern history,” said Wendong Zhang, an economist at Cornell University. “This gradual unveiling, paradoxically, risks normalizing what would otherwise be considered exceptionally large tariff hikes.”
Others simply see Trump as a source of nonstop chaos, with the letters and their somewhat random tariff rates showing the absence of a genuine policy process inside his administration.
“It’s really just a validation that this policy is all over the place, that they’re running this by the seat of their pants, that there is no real strategy,” said Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank.
Questions about how much money tariffs will generate
With Trump’s 90-day tariff negotiation period ending, he has so far sent letters to 14 countries that place taxes on imported goods ranging from 25 percent to 40 percent. He said he would sign an order Tuesday to place 50 percent tariffs on copper and said at the Cabinet meeting that at some point pharmaceutical drugs could face tariffs of as much as 200 percent. All of that is on top of his existing 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, 25 percent tariffs on autos and his separate import taxes on Canada, Mexico and China.
“The obvious inference is that markets for now are somewhat skeptical that Trump will go through with it, or alternatively they think compromises will be reached,” said Ben May, a director of global economic research at the consultancy Oxford Economics. “That’s probably the key element.”
May said the tariffs are likely to reduce the growth in US household incomes, but not cause those incomes to shrink outright.
Trump has said his tariffs would close US trade imbalances, though it’s unclear why he would target nations such as Tunisia that do relatively little trade with America. Administration officials say trillions of dollars in tariff revenues over the next decade would help offset the revenue losses from the continuation and expansion of his 2017 tax cuts that were signed into law Friday.
The federal government has collected $98.2 billion in tariff revenues so far this year, more than double what it collected last year, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
At Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariff revenues could be “well over $300 billion by the end of the year.” Bessent added that “we don’t agree” with the Congressional Budget Office estimate that tariffs would bring in $2.8 trillion over 10 years, “which we think is probably low.”
The governments of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and South Africa have each said they hope for further negotiations on tariffs with Trump, though it’s unclear how that’s possible as Trump has said it would be too “complicated” to hold all those meetings.
Instead on Tuesday, Trump posted on social media that the tariffs would be charged as scheduled starting Aug. 1.
“There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change,” Trump said on Truth Social. “No extensions will be granted. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”


Death toll from Nepal protest violence rises to 51: police

Death toll from Nepal protest violence rises to 51: police
Updated 5 sec ago

Death toll from Nepal protest violence rises to 51: police

Death toll from Nepal protest violence rises to 51: police
  • Talks continue between the president, protest representatives, key potential figures who may lead an interim administration and the army
  • The dead included prisoners killed during or after their escape in clashes with Nepali security forces

KATHMANDU: At least 51 people were killed during violent anti-corruption protests in Nepal this week, police said Friday in an updated toll, as the full scale of chaos that toppled the government emerges.

Talks continue between the president, protest representatives, key potential figures who may lead an interim administration and the army – which has imposed a curfew and taken charge of the streets.

At least 21 protesters were among those killed, mainly on Monday during a police crackdown on demonstrations against a government ban on social media, corruption and poor governance.

On Tuesday, protesters set the parliament ablaze, KP Sharma Oli resigned as prime minister, and the army then took charge of the streets.

Nepal’s army said Friday that had recovered more than 100 guns looted in the uprising, during which protesters were seen brandishing automatic rifles.

Police spokesman Binod Ghimire said that “51 people have died so far this week in the protests, including at least 21 protestors and three policemen.”

More than 12,500 prisoners who escaped from multiple jails countrywide during the chaos remain on the run, he added.

“About 13,500 prisoners had escaped – some have been recaptured, 12,533 are still at large,” Ghimire said.

The dead included prisoners killed during or after their escape in clashes with Nepali security forces.

Some of the fugitives have tried to cross the vast and porous frontier into India, where scores have been apprehended by Indian border forces.


South Korea workers head home after US immigration raid

South Korea workers head home after US immigration raid
Updated 10 min 11 sec ago

South Korea workers head home after US immigration raid

South Korea workers head home after US immigration raid
  • Georgia raid was the largest single-site operation conducted since US President Donald Trump launched a sweeping immigration crackdown
  • President Lee Jae Myung called the raid “bewildering” and noted it could have a chilling effect on future investment

SEOUL: Hundreds of South Korean workers were headed back to Seoul on Friday after their detention in a US immigration raid that Hyundai warned will delay completion of its battery factory.

South Korean workers accounted for most of the 475 people arrested last week at the Hyundai-LG battery plant under construction in Georgia, prompting tense negotiations between Seoul and Washington, staunch security allies.

A specially chartered Korean Air Boeing 747-8I carrying 316 South Koreans and 14 foreign employees departed Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on Thursday, Seoul’s foreign ministry said.

“Everything at Atlanta went smoothly,” a foreign ministry official said on Friday, ahead of the workers’ expected arrival at 2:00 p.m. (0500 GMT).

“The plane departed as scheduled with the planned number of passengers.”

The Georgia raid was the largest single-site operation conducted since US President Donald Trump launched a sweeping immigration crackdown, a top political priority since he returned to office in January.

Experts say most of the detained South Korean workers were likely on visas that do not permit hands-on construction work.

President Lee Jae Myung called the raid “bewildering” and noted it could have a chilling effect on future investment.

He added that Seoul was negotiating with Washington “to ensure that visa issuance for investment-related purposes operates normally”.

Asia’s fourth-largest economy maintains multiple plants in the United States, and has heeded Washington’s push to onshore manufacturing and boost investment in America.

At the Hyundai factory site, construction will now be set back due to labor shortages, Chief Executive Officer Jose Munoz said.

“This is going to give us minimum two to three months delay, because now all these people want to get back,” he said.

“Then you need to see how can you fill those positions. And, for the most part, those people are not in the US.”

The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU), one of the country’s largest umbrella union groups, called for an apology from Trump and for Seoul to halt US investment plans.

“The Trump administration’s excessive mass arrests and detentions were a clear violation of human rights,” it said in a statement sent to AFP.

“The KCTU stands in full solidarity with the workers returning today and strongly urges President Trump to issue an official apology and calls for (South Korea’s) suspension of investments in the US.”

Minimize impact

LG Energy Solution – which said 47 of its employees were arrested, along with about 250 people working for its contractor – thanked the Seoul government for its support.

Seoul sent a task force and flew in top officials to negotiate, with a focus on ensuring that workers would not suffer repercussions should they seek to re-enter the United States.

“We are especially grateful for their exceptional efforts... for their meticulous attention to addressing various concerns, including ensuring no disadvantages upon re-entry,” the firm said in a statement sent to AFP.

Images of the workers being chained and handcuffed during the raid caused widespread alarm in South Korea, and Seoul said the government had negotiated to make sure the workers were not handcuffed again as they were repatriated.

The raid came less than a month after Trump welcomed Lee to the White House.

The site of the raid is a $4.3 billion venture to build a battery cell manufacturing facility in Georgia.

Many South Korean companies bring their own workforce during project development periods, with industry sources telling AFP it is common practice to use visa workarounds to avoid project delays.

LG said it remained committed to its US projects, adding that it was also working to minimize “any business impact resulting from this incident”.


Investigators plead for public’s help in Charlie Kirk killing

Investigators plead for public’s help in Charlie Kirk killing
Updated 21 min 37 sec ago

Investigators plead for public’s help in Charlie Kirk killing

Investigators plead for public’s help in Charlie Kirk killing
  • No one in custody more than a day after a murder that has rocked America’s fractious politics
  • Hundreds of agents from across 20 law enforcement agencies are combing for clues to the identity of the culprit

OREM, United States: Investigators searching for the man who killed right-wing activist Charlie Kirk appealed for the public’s help Thursday, with no one in custody more than a day after a murder that has rocked America’s fractious politics.

Kirk, a 31-year-old superstar on the Republican right who harnessed surging youth support for President Donald Trump, was shot dead while addressing a large crowd at Utah Valley University on Wednesday.

Hundreds of agents from across 20 law enforcement agencies are combing for clues to the identity of the culprit, but at a Thursday evening media briefing, they appeared to have little to show.

“We cannot do our job without the public’s help,” Utah Governor Spencer Cox told reporters, adding they had received more than 7,000 leads.

“We need as many, as much help as we can possibly get. Any videos or photos that you might have... should be submitted to our digital media tip line.”

FBI Director Kash Patel, who on Wednesday tweeted that agents had someone in custody before having to walk that back, stood mutely as Cox spoke.

No one took any questions from the assembled press corps.

Pictures released Thursday showed a man detectives want to question.

He was wearing Converse shoes, a black baseball cap, dark sunglasses, and what appeared to be jeans, with a long-sleeved top emblazoned with a design that included an American flag.

Police say they believe the shooter fired a single bullet from a rooftop up to 200 yards (180 meters) away, hitting Kirk in the neck.

A video played at the press conference shows a figure running across a roof at the university, then jumping to the ground and making his way off campus towards some trees -- apparently the location where a high-powered bolt-action rifle was recovered.

‘Dark moment’

Reflecting the highly political nature of the killing, Kirk’s coffin was transported to his home city of Phoenix on JD Vance’s official plane.

Footage showed the vice president with his hands on the casket as it was carried to Air Force 2.

Kirk’s widow, Erika, held hands with Vance’s wife after the plane arrived in Arizona, the headquarters of the powerful Turning Point USA.

The right wing mediasphere remained in a state of heightened emotion Thursday, with Fox News contributors recounting the impact Kirk had on their lives.

Conspiracy theories ricocheted around the internet, while calls for a return to civility in political discourse vied with those demanding vengeance.

“THIS IS WAR” wrote the popular right-wing X account of @LibsofTikTOK.

Fox News host Jesse Watters on Wednesday said the killing showed his side of the political spectrum was under attack.

“Whether we want to accept it or not, they are at war with us. And what are we going to do about it?” he asked his audience.

Trump, however, urged supporters to respond peacefully, telling reporters that Kirk had been “an advocate of nonviolence.”

“That’s the way I’d like to see people respond,” he said.

 ‘Martyr’ for the right

Students at the Utah Valley University on Thursday described their shock, and their broader fears as political divisions deepen across the country.

Dave Sanchez said witnessing the killing made him “sick to my stomach.”

“We watch him all the time and so it really does feel like one of your own family members, your own brother’s been killed,” said Sanchez, 26.

Kirk, whom supporters have hailed as a “martyr” for conservative ideals, had an outsized influence in US politics.

He co-founded Turning Point USA in 2012 to drive conservative viewpoints among young people, with his natural showmanship making him a go-to spokesman on television networks.

The father-of-two used his enormous audiences on TikTok, Instagram and YouTube to build support for anti-immigration policies, outspoken Christianity and gun ownership, and to spread carefully edited clips of his interactions during debates at his many college events.

Kirk’s killing is the latest chilling episode in a country no stranger to political violence, particularly in recent years.

Three months ago, a Minnesota man shot dead a Democratic lawmaker and her husband in their home. In July 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt during his election campaign.


Russia shoots down 221 Ukrainian drones overnight

Russia shoots down 221 Ukrainian drones overnight
Updated 31 min 22 sec ago

Russia shoots down 221 Ukrainian drones overnight

Russia shoots down 221 Ukrainian drones overnight
  • Moscow’s defense ministry said its alert systems had “intercepted and destroyed” the drones

MOSCOW: Russia said on Friday that it had shot down 221 Ukrainian drones overnight, one of the highest tallies of the more than three-year war.

Moscow’s defense ministry said its alert systems had “intercepted and destroyed” the drones, over half of which flew over the regions of Bryansk and Smolensk.

The figure included 28 aircraft downed over the Leningrad region, which surrounds the city of St Petersburg.

Leningrad governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said a fire had broken out on a vessel in the Port of Primorsk, a major facility on the Baltic Sea, following drone incursions in the region.

The attacks came after Poland, which borders Ukraine, accused Russia of launching a drone raid on its territory this week.

Moscow has denied targeting the country and said there was no evidence the drones were Russian.

But France and Germany moved to bolster the defense of Polish airspace, with the UN Security Council calling an emergency meeting to discuss the allegations.

Russia has targeted Ukraine with regular drone barrages as part of an ongoing offensive there following its 2022 invasion.


China’s newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sails through Taiwan Strait

China’s newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sails through Taiwan Strait
Updated 42 min 14 sec ago

China’s newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sails through Taiwan Strait

China’s newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sails through Taiwan Strait
  • Beijing has ploughed billions of dollars into modernizing its military in recent years
  • This trend that has unnerved some governments in East Asia

BEIING: China said on Friday that its third and newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, recently sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait to carry out “scientific research trials and training missions” in the South China Sea.

Beijing has ploughed billions of dollars into modernizing its military in recent years, a trend that has unnerved some governments in East Asia despite China insisting its aims are peaceful.

China has two carriers in operation – the Liaoning and Shandong – with the Fujian currently undergoing sea trials.

China’s navy said on Friday that undertaking cross-regional trials “is a normal part of the aircraft carrier’s construction process”.

It is “not directed at any specific target”, a spokesman for the Chinese navy, Leng Guowei, said in a statement.

However, its transit through the sensitive Taiwan Strait was intended to signal “China’s rise as a strong military power, and beyond that, a maritime great power”, said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“It’s to flex China’s newfound military strength and send a veritable signal to potential adversaries,” he said.

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said Friday it had used “joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance means to fully grasp the situation and responded accordingly”.

Japan’s defense ministry said that on Thursday afternoon it had identified three Chinese naval ships advancing southwest in waters approximately 200 kilometers (124 miles) northwest of one of the disputed Senkaku Islands, known in Chinese as the Diaoyu Islands.

“Among these, the Fujian aircraft carrier was confirmed by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force for the first time,” it said in a statement.

Japan said in July that China’s intensifying military activities could “seriously impact” its security, citing the first confirmed incursion by a Chinese military aircraft into its airspace last August in an annual threat assessment.

China said that a coastguard fleet had “patrolled within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands” on Friday.

Last year, Chinese vessels sailed near the Japanese-administered islands a record 355 times, according to Tokyo.

Expanding its reach

Compared to the other seas, the South China Sea “presents a more challenging environment with harsher conditions, making the trials more rigorous” for the Fujian, said Song Zhongping, a Chinese military commentator.

After undergoing sea trials and completing further adaptive training, the Fujian will likely be commissioned into active service, Song said.

The Soviet-built Liaoning is China’s oldest aircraft carrier, commissioned in 2012, while the Shandong entered service in 2019.

Analysts at Washington-based think tank CSIS have said the Fujian is expected to feature more advanced take-off systems, allowing the Chinese air force to deploy jets carrying larger payloads and more fuel.

China has stepped up a massive expansion of its naval forces in recent years as it seeks to grow its reach in the Pacific and challenge a US-led alliance.

The US Department of Defense said in a December report that China numerically has the largest navy in the world, with a battle force of more than 370 ships and submarines.

Beijing said in June that its Liaoning and Shandong carrier formations conducted combat drills in the western Pacific Ocean, unsettling regional neighbors including Japan.

A Taiwanese security official also said that month Beijing had deployed its two aircraft carrier groups around the island in May.

The Chinese Communist Party has refused to rule out using force to seize control of Taiwan, a democratic, self-ruled island that China insists is part of its territory.