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UN says strong chance average warming will top 1.5C in next 4 years

UN says strong chance average warming will top 1.5C in next 4 years
Tourists use umbrellas to protect themselves from the strong midday sun in a park, during a heatwave in Ronda, Spain, on Jul. 24, 2024. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 28 May 2025

UN says strong chance average warming will top 1.5C in next 4 years

UN says strong chance average warming will top 1.5C in next 4 years
  • The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024
  • “We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,” said the WMO’s deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett

GENEVA: The United Nations warned on Wednesday that there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 would exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark.

The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN’s weather and climate agency.

“We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,” said the WMO’s deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.

“Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”

The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels — and to pursue efforts to peg it at 1.5C.

The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide (CO2) — the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change.

The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing.

The WMO’s latest projections are compiled by Britain’s Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centers.

The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average.

It says there is a 70 percent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C.

“This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s,” said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth.

“I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent” in the five-year outlook, he added.

The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the current warmest year on record: 2024.

To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO’s climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference.

One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade (2015-2034). With this method, the estimated current warming is 1.44C.

There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming.

The EU’s climate monitor Copernicus believes that warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner.

Although “exceptionally unlikely” at one percent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming.

“It’s the first time we’ve ever seen such an event in our computer predictions,” said the Met Office’s Adam Scaife.

“It is shocking” and “that probability is going to rise.”

He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024.

Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers.

This year’s climate is offering no respite.

Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit nearly 52C (126F), and Pakistan was buffeted by deadly winds following an intense heatwave.

“We’ve already hit a dangerous level of warming,” with recent “deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada,” said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London.

“Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy.”

Davide Faranda, from France’s CNRS National Center for Scientific Research, added: “The science is unequivocal: to have any hope of staying within a safe climate window, we must urgently cut fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy.”

Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO.

Sea ice predictions for 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.

Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years.

And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon.


Lines stretch outside the Louvre in Paris as opening delayed for undisclosed emergency meeting

Lines stretch outside the Louvre in Paris as opening delayed for undisclosed emergency meeting
Updated 13 sec ago

Lines stretch outside the Louvre in Paris as opening delayed for undisclosed emergency meeting

Lines stretch outside the Louvre in Paris as opening delayed for undisclosed emergency meeting
  • The Louvre Museum delayed its opening on Monday morning, with staff citing an “emergency meeting” of senior officials about a subject they did not disclose
  • The hold-up left thousands of ticket-holders stuck in unmoving lines. Some visitors gave up and left, creating the illusion that lines were moving
PARIS:The Louvre Museum failed to open on time Monday, leaving thousands of visitors stuck in long, unmoving lines outside the iconic Paris institution as staff held a protest over working conditions.
According to union representative Sarah Sefian of the CGT-Culture, the disruption was caused by a spontaneous movement among front-of-house staff, including gallery attendants, reception, and security workers, who are protesting deteriorating labor conditions.
“It’s a movement led by reception agents who are suffering from the working conditions at the Louvre,” Sefian told The Associated Press.
“What began as a scheduled monthly information session turned into a mass expression of exasperation,” she said. “Staff decided to stay together until management arrived.”
Sefian said the agents gathered in the auditorium at 10:30 a.m. for talks with the museum’s leadership. “All roles related to visitor reception are affected,” she said. “Overcrowding and understaffing are the main issues being raised.”
As of midday, the museum remained closed, with lines snaking past I.M. Pei’s famous glass pyramid and deep into the underground shopping complex. Some ticket-holders gave up and left, creating the illusion of movement in the queues.
A message on the museum’s official website stated: “Due to strikes in France, the museum may open later and some exhibition rooms may remain closed. We thank you for your understanding.”
Union officials say the museum will reopen Monday afternoon.

German court sentences Syrian doctor to life in prison for torture and war crimes in his homeland

German court sentences Syrian doctor to life in prison for torture and war crimes in his homeland
Updated 18 min 47 sec ago

German court sentences Syrian doctor to life in prison for torture and war crimes in his homeland

German court sentences Syrian doctor to life in prison for torture and war crimes in his homeland
  • German news agency dpa reported that the 40-year-old Syrian, who was identified as Alaa M. in line with German privacy rules, was placed in preventive detention

BERLIN: A German court sentenced a Syrian doctor to life imprisonment for torture and war crimes in his Syrian homeland on Monday for killing two people and torturing nine in Syria between 2011 and 2012.
The Frankfurt Higher Regional Court also established the particular gravity of the guilt, which in practice virtually rules out early release after 15 years — as is often the case in Germany when people are sentenced to life imprisonment. The 40-year-old Syrian, who was identified as Alaa M. in line with German privacy rules, was placed in preventive detention, German news agency dpa reported.
In his verdict, presiding judge Christoph Koller described the actions of the accused in the military hospital in the Syrian city of Homs in the early stages of the civil war that began in 2011. He said the doctor had sadistic tendencies and acted them out during the torture.
“Above all, the accused enjoyed harming people that seemed inferior and low-value to him,” Koller said, according to dpa.
During the trial, which lasted almost three and a half years, victims had described the most severe abuse, including beatings, kicks and the setting of wounds and body parts on fire, dpa reported.
Koller emphasized that without the willingness and courage of witnesses to share the details of their suffering the facts of the case could not have been clarified.
M. had lived in Germany for ten years and had worked as an orthopedic surgeon in several clinics, most recently in Bad Wildungen in northern Hesse. In summer 2020, he was arrested after some of his victims had recognized him from a TV documentary about Homs, dpa reported.
The doctor supposedly tortured prisoners who were considered part of the opposition to former Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. The trial against him began in January 2022.
Alaa M. described himself as not guilty during the trial, alleging that he was the victim of a conspiracy, dpa wrote. The verdict is not yet final.


Spaniards turn water pistols on visitors in Barcelona and Mallorca to protest mass tourism

Spaniards turn water pistols on visitors in Barcelona and Mallorca to protest mass tourism
Updated 16 June 2025

Spaniards turn water pistols on visitors in Barcelona and Mallorca to protest mass tourism

Spaniards turn water pistols on visitors in Barcelona and Mallorca to protest mass tourism
  • About a thousand Spaniards marched to demand a rethink of an economic model they believe is fueling a housing crunch and erasing the character of their city on Sunday
  • The marches were part of a coordinated effort by activists concerned with the ills of overtourism across southern Europe’s top destinations

BARCELONA: Protesters used water pistols against unsuspecting tourists in Barcelona and on the Spanish island of Mallorca on Sunday as demonstrators marched to demand a rethink of an economic model they believe is fueling a housing crunch and erasing the character of their hometowns.
The marches were part of the first coordinated effort by activists concerned with the ills of overtourism across southern Europe’s top destinations. While several thousands rallied in Mallorca in the biggest gathering of the day, hundreds more gathered in other Spanish cities, as well as in Venice, Italy, and Portugal’s capital, Lisbon.
“The squirt guns are to bother the tourists a bit,” Andreu Martínez said in Barcelona with a chuckle after spritzing a couple seated at an outdoor café. “Barcelona has been handed to the tourists. This is a fight to give Barcelona back to its residents.”
Martínez, a 42-year-old administrative assistant, is one of a growing number of residents who are convinced that tourism has gone too far in the city of 1.7 million people. Barcelona hosted 15.5 million visitors last year eager to see Antoni Gaudí’s La Sagrada Familia basilica and the Las Ramblas promenade.
Martínez says his rent has risen over 30 percent as more apartments in his neighborhood are rented to tourists for short-term stays. He said there is a knock-on effect of traditional stores being replaced by businesses catering to tourists, like souvenir shops, burger joints and “bubble tea” spots.
“Our lives, as lifelong residents of Barcelona, are coming to an end,” he said. “We are being pushed out systematically.”
Around 5,000 people gathered in Palma, the capital of Mallorca, with some toting water guns as well and chanting “Everywhere you look, all you see are tourists.” The tourists who were targeted by water blasts laughed it off. The Balearic island is a favorite for British and German sun-seekers. It has seen housing costs skyrocket as homes are diverted to the short-term rental market.
Hundreds more marched in Granada, in southern Spain, and in the northern city of San Sebastián, as well as the island of Ibiza.
In Venice, a couple of dozen protesters unfurled a banner calling for a halt to new hotel beds in the lagoon city in front of two recently completed structures, one in the popular tourist destination’s historic center where activists say the last resident, an elderly woman, was kicked out last year.
‘That’s lovely’
Protesters in Barcelona blew whistles and held up homemade signs saying “One more tourist, one less resident.” They stuck stickers saying “Citizen Self-Defense,” in Catalan, and “Tourist Go Home,” in English, with a drawing of a water pistol on the doors of hotels and hostels.
There was tension when the march stopped in front of a large hostel, where a group emptied their water guns at two workers positioned in the entrance. They also set off firecrackers next to the hostel and opened a can of pink smoke. One worker spat at the protesters as he slammed the hostel’s doors.
American tourists Wanda and Bill Dorozenski were walking along Barcelona’s main luxury shopping boulevard where the protest started. They received a squirt or two, but she said it was actually refreshing given the 83 degree Fahrenheit (28.3 degrees Celsius) weather.
“That’s lovely, thank you sweetheart,” Wanda said to the squirter. “I am not going to complain. These people are feeling something to them that is very personal, and is perhaps destroying some areas (of the city).”
There were also many marchers with water pistols who didn’t fire at bystanders and instead solely used them to spray themselves to keep cool.
Crackdown on Airbnb
Cities across the world are struggling with how to cope with mass tourism and a boom in short-term rental platforms, like Airbnb, but perhaps nowhere has surging discontent been so evident as in Spain, where protesters in Barcelona first took to firing squirt guns at tourists during a protest last summer.
There has also been a confluence of the pro-housing and anti-tourism struggles in Spain, whose 48 million residents welcomed record 94 million international visitors in 2024. When thousands marched through the streets of Spain’s capital in April, some held homemade signs saying “Get Airbnb out of our neighborhoods.”
Spanish authorities are striving to show they hear the public outcry while not hurting an industry that contributes 12 percent of gross domestic product.
Last month, Spain’s government ordered Airbnb to remove almost 66,000 holiday rentals from the platform that it said had violated local rules.
Spain’s Consumer Rights Minister Pablo Bustinduy told The Associated Press shortly after the crackdown on Airbnb that the tourism sector “cannot jeopardize the constitutional rights of the Spanish people,” which enshrines their right to housing and well-being. Carlos Cuerpo, the economy minister, said in a separate interview that the government is aware it must tackle the unwanted side effects of mass tourism.
The boldest move was made by Barcelona’s town hall, which stunned Airbnb and other services who help rent properties to tourists by announcing last year the elimination of all 10,000 short-term rental licenses in the city by 2028.
That sentiment was back in force on Sunday, where people held up signs saying “Your Airbnb was my home.”
‘Taking away housing’
The short-term rental industry, for its part, believes it is being treated unfairly.
“I think a lot of our politicians have found an easy scapegoat to blame for the inefficiencies of their policies in terms of housing and tourism over the last 10, 15, 20 years,” Airbnb’s general director for Spain and Portugal, Jaime Rodríguez de Santiago recently told the AP.
That argument either hasn’t trickled down to the ordinary residents of Barcelona, or isn’t resonating.
Txema Escorsa, a teacher in Barcelona, doesn’t just oppose Airbnb in his home city, he has ceased to use it even when traveling elsewhere, out of principle.
“In the end, you realize that this is taking away housing from people,” he said.


One dead, 36 injured after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru

One dead, 36 injured after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru
Updated 16 June 2025

One dead, 36 injured after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru

One dead, 36 injured after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru
  • A 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck Peru on Sunday, leaving one person dead and 36 injured as the tremor triggered landslides, officials said

LIMA: A 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck Peru on Sunday, leaving one person dead and 36 injured as the tremor triggered landslides, officials said.
The quake hit shortly before noon and was centered around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Callao, a port city next to the capital Lima, the National Seismological Center said. The US Geological Survey put the magnitude at 5.6.
Peru said the tremor had not generated a tsunami warning.
A man died in Lima when a wall fell on the car he was driving, the National Police said.
In addition, the Emergency Operations Center reported 36 injuries in Lima.
President Dina Boluarte called for “calm” from citizens, noting that there was no tsunami warning for the South American country’s Pacific coastline.
The TV channel Latina showed footage of landslides in several areas of the capital city.
The quake also prompted a suspension of a major football game being played in Lima. The city’s subway service was also halted.
Peru is home to 34 million people and lies on the so-called Ring of Fire, a stretch of intense seismic and volcanic activity around the Pacific basin.
Peru averages at least 100 detectable earthquakes every year.
The last big one, in 2021 in the Amazon region, had a magnitude of 7.5, left 12 people injured and destroyed more than 70 homes.
A devastating quake in 1970 in the northern Ancash region of Peru killed around 67,000 people.


World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals — SIPRI think tank

World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals — SIPRI think tank
Updated 16 June 2025

World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals — SIPRI think tank

World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals — SIPRI think tank
  • Nine nuclear states — US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel plan to increase their stockpiles
  • Of total global inventory of estimated 12,241 warheads in Jan. 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use

STOCKHOLM: The world’s nuclear-armed states are beefing up their atomic arsenals and walking out of arms control pacts, creating a new era of threat that has brought an end to decades of reductions in stockpiles since the Cold War, a think tank said on Monday.
Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,241 warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said in its yearbook, an annual inventory of the world’s most dangerous weapons.
Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, nearly all belonging to either the US or Russia.
SIPRI said global tensions had seen the nine nuclear states — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel — plan to increase their stockpiles.
“The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,” SIPRI said. “Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.”
SIPRI said Russia and the US, which together possess around 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, had kept the sizes of their respective useable warheads relatively stable in 2024. But both were implementing extensive modernization programs that could increase the size of their arsenals in the future.
The fastest-growing arsenal is China’s, with Beijing adding about 100 new warheads per year since 2023. China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the US by the turn of the decade.
According to the estimates, Russia and the US held around 5,459 and 5,177 nuclear warheads respectively, while China had around 600.