KABUL: The entry of Beijing’s multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into Afghanistan is expected to boost its ailing economy and regional standing, experts say, following the announcement of expansion plans.
The Chinese, Pakistani and Afghan foreign ministers reached an agreement during a trilateral meeting in Beijing on Wednesday to broaden the flagship part of China’s global infrastructure and investment strategy.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the expansion of CPEC aimed to “deepen” cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative — a network of massive road, energy, port and industrial projects launched in 2013 to connect China to the rest of Asia, Europe and Africa.
For Afghanistan, the mega project offers an “important opportunity” to boost its political and economic ties not only with China and Pakistan, but also with the neighboring Central Asian republics, Amin Stanikzai, an economist and lecturer at the Rokhan Institute of Higher Education in Nangarhar, told Arab News.
“It can serve as the intersection of China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, as well as South and Central Asia, therefore, it benefits Afghanistan ... Afghanistan is optimistic about the CPEC project partly because regional connectivity is in Afghanistan’s interest as it is a landlocked country with no access to the sea.”
Since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021, its economy has been reeling under Western sanctions and unemployment has more than doubled.
“If managed well, the project can contribute to the overall stability and development in the region, in addition to improving connectivity and Afghanistan’s access to regional and international markets,” Stanikzai said.
Chinese projects could offer a significant respite to Afghanistan’s economic woes and help develop its potential.
Afghanistan is believed to have vast untapped reserves of lithium, rare earths and other critical minerals, which are key resources in the EV battery and green tech industries.
The potential value of Afghanistan’s lithium and rare earth elements has been estimated by the US Geological Survey and the US Department of Defense to range between $1 trillion and $3 trillion.
It has also some of the world’s largest untapped copper deposits. China Metallurgical Group Corp won a 30-year lease in 2008 to develop the Mes Aynak copper mine in Logar province, but the project stalled due to security issues.
Last year, the Taliban government and China renewed discussions to revive the project.
Talks on Afghanistan’s inclusion in CPEC also started several years ago but practical work has yet to begin, complicated by geopolitical considerations.
Major global powers remain skeptical of China’s BRI. The project has also been consistently opposed by India as it involves construction in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region — part of the disputed Kashmiri territory, which New Delhi and Islamabad claim in full but rule in part.
The entry of CPEC projects would, however, help mend Afghanistan’s lately troubled relations with its largest trading partner and route: Pakistan.
“Afghanistan can benefit from these projects politically as well since this is an initiative led by China and it can use its influence over Pakistan in resolving political tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan in the future,” said Abdul Hai Qanit, a political analyst and commentator on Afghan affairs.
“This will have a positive impact on Afghanistan’s economy as a result of becoming a part of the large transportation network that BRI and CPEC will provide. Afghanistan will be able to export its goods without any challenges and delays.”
The scope of projects in the long term could help transform Afghanistan, whose infrastructure and economy have been underdeveloped due to decades of war.
It would also secure its access to international markets and integration into regional economic frameworks.
“Direct linkage to China through Pakistan via CPEC could facilitate the construction of vital transportation corridors, energy projects and digital infrastructure. These are crucial elements for long-term development and post-conflict reconstruction,” Bashir Seddiqi, an international relations expert, told Arab News.
He was not certain, however, how soon the change could be seen.
“Feasibility of implementation remains deeply uncertain,” Seddiqi said. “The CPEC project itself, despite its strategic importance, has experienced delays and setbacks within Pakistan due to governance challenges, financial constraints and shifting political priorities.”
