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KARACHI: Pakistan’s flood authority on Thursday warned that the Indus River will reach “very high flood” levels at Guddu Barrage, a major dam in Sindh province that regulates flows to southern Pakistan, within 48 hours, as swollen rivers from Punjab move south and officials there reported conditions gradually improving.

Punjab, home to more than half of Pakistan’s 240 million people and its main farming belt, has been devastated since late August when record monsoon rains swelled the Ravi, Chenab and Sutlej rivers simultaneously in a historic first. Punjab officials say 79 people have died and nearly two million acres of farmland submerged in the province’s worst flooding in four decades.

According to the Punjab disaster authority, the Chenab River was still carrying heavy volumes on Thursday afternoon, with more than 150,000 cubic feet per second flowing through Trimmu, one of its major control points, and above 90,000 at Qadirabad further downstream.

The Sutlej River was also running high, pushing over 120,000 cubic feet per second through its headworks at Sulemanki and Islam, while the Ravi had stabilized at lower levels. Officials said the overall pattern showed that enormous volumes of water were continuing to drain southward from Punjab into the Indus.

“River Indus at Guddu is expected to attain Very High Flood level during the next 48 hours. River Indus at Sukur is expected to attain High Flood level after 48 hours,” the Flood Forecasting Division said.

By Thursday afternoon, Guddu Barrage itself was carrying more than 505,000 cusecs, with gauges upstream at Chachran showing levels steady at nearly 298 feet, officials said.

Guddu and Sukkur are the two main barrages that channel Indus waters into central and southern Sindh, protecting densely populated areas further downstream.

Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah said in a statement Sukkur Barrage had safely handled over 1.1 million cusecs of water in recent days.

“Sukkur Barrage is a great masterpiece of 1932 and was built by the best engineers of that time,” he said, adding that “climate change has made it necessary to enhance the capacity of barrages.”

He said reinforcement works were under way at 45 vulnerable points across the province.

A day earlier, Shah said the “super-flood” threat in Sindh had receded.

“By the grace of God, the threat of a nine- to ten-lakh cusec flood in Sindh has passed,” he told a private TV channel, according to the provincial authorities.

SOUTHERN PUNJAB

Meanwhile, rescue operations remain focused in southern Punjab’s Jalalpur Pirwala, a tehsil near the city of Multan where the Chenab and Sutlej converge and floodwaters have inundated entire villages.

“With the help of the Pakistan Army, relief goods are being delivered to the affected areas,” said PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia.

He said 706,000 people had been affected in Jalalpur Pirwala, 362,000 moved to safer places and more than 311,000 livestock relocated.

“Rescue operations will continue until all victims are moved to safe places,” he added.

Punjab Information Minister Azma Bukhari said 3,628 people had been evacuated from Multan in the past three days, and that water levels at key headworks, including Muhammad Wala and Sher Shah Bridge, were “no longer critical.”

Punjab Relief Commissioner Nabil Javed said more than 4.3 million people across the province had been affected and 2.26 million moved to safe places.

He said 396 relief camps, 490 medical camps and 412 veterinary camps were operating, and 1.7 million animals had been relocated.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department forecast no significant rain until at least Sept. 15, giving flooded areas in Punjab time to drain.

But officials have cautioned that swollen rivers would continue pushing south into Sindh for days, requiring close monitoring of dykes and barrages.

Nationwide, nearly 1,000 people have been killed in Pakistan since the monsoon season began on June 26.

“The floods have caused a lot of destruction,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told a cabinet meeting in Islamabad on Wednesday. “Today, after the consultation, the cabinet is announcing a climate emergency and an agricultural emergency.”