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BAGHDAD: In Iraqi airspace, Iranian missiles and drones have crossed paths with Israeli warplanes, forcing Baghdad to step up efforts to avoid being drawn into the region’s latest conflict.

But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel’s closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory.

“There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq,” said political analyst Sajad Jiyad.

“Iraqis have a right to be worried,” he added.

With warnings of all-out regional war intensifying following Israel’s surprise assault on Iran last week, fears are growing over an intervention by Iran-backed Iraqi factions, which have been calling for the withdrawal of US troops deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-jihadist coalition.

A senior Iraqi security official told AFP on condition of anonymity that among pro-Iran actors “everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict.”

But Jiyad warned that if the US supports Israel’s attacks, it “may lead to pro-Iran elements inside Iraq targeting US troops” or other American interests like the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Irbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region.

This could lead to the US and Israel taking retaliatory actions within Iraq, Jiyad added.

Iraq, which has been for years navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles.

In 2020, during US President Donald Trump’s first term, Washington killed Iran’s esteemed Revolutionary Guards general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.

Most recently, amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iraq was on the brink of being drawn into the conflict after pro-Iran factions launched numerous attacks on US troops in the region, as well as mostly failed attacks on Israel, in support of Palestinians.

Washington retaliated by hitting the armed groups.

In recent days, Baghdad has been working diplomatic channels to prevent the latest violence from spreading onto its turf.

It has called on Washington to prevent Israeli jets from using Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks against Iran.

It also asked Iran not to strike US targets in its territory, and was promised “positive things,” according to a senior Iraqi official.

Israel’s use of Iraq’s airspace has angered pro-Iran groups, who accused US troops of allowing it.

Powerful armed faction Kataeb Hezbollah stressed that Iran does not need “military support,” but it said that the group is “closely monitoring” the US military in the region.

It warned that if Washington intervenes in the war, the group “will act directly against its interests and bases in the region without hesitation.”

A US official urged the Iraqi government to “protect diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel.”

“We believe Iraq will be more stable and sovereign by becoming energy independent and distancing itself from Iran’s malign influence,” the official told AFP, referring to Iraq’s dependency on gas imports from Iran.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that Iran-backed groups “continue to engage in violent and destabilising activities in Iraq.”

Israel’s surprise attack on Iran targeted military and nuclear facilities and killed many top commanders and atomic scientists. Iran responded by unleashing barrages of missile strikes on Israel.

Tamer Badawi, an expert on Iraqi armed groups, said “the more Iran struggles to sustain its firepower against Israel, the likelier it becomes that Iraqi paramilitary actors will be drawn in.”

For now, “Iran is trying to avoid collateral damage to its network by keeping its regional allies on standby. But this posture could shift,” he added.

Before launching its attack on Iran, Israel had badly hit Tehran’s proxies in the region, significantly weakening some groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

“Beyond attacks within Iraq, Iran-backed Iraqi groups retain the capacity to target Israel from western Iraq using their missile arsenals, as they have done before,” Badawi said.

They might also target American interests in Jordan.

But Iraqi officials say they have other plans for their country, which has only recently regained a semblance of stability after decades of devastating conflicts and turmoil.

Iraq is gearing up for its legislative elections in November, which are often marked by heated political wrangling.

For armed groups, elections are a crucial battleground as they strive to secure more seats in parliament.

“Sometimes, the sword must be kept in the sheath, but this does not mean abandoning our weapons,” a commander of an armed faction told AFP.

The armed groups will not leave Iran, their “godfather.. in the battle alone.”

DUBAI: The International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday it believes Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s Natanz enrichment site have had “direct impacts” on the facility’s underground centrifuge halls.
The strikes are part of an air campaign Israel launched against its longtime foe five days ago, targeting Iran’s military and nuclear program.
This marks the first time the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog has assessed damage from the strikes in the underground parts of Natanz, which is the main enrichment facility of Iran’s nuclear program.
“Based on continued analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday’s attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz,” the agency said.
Already, an above-ground enrichment hall had been destroyed, as well as electrical equipment that powered the facility.
Israel continued to pound Iran Tuesday, while US President Donald Trump posted an ominous message warning Tehran residents to evacuate.
“IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON,” Trump wrote Monday night before returning to Washington early from a Group of Seven summit in Canada. “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” he added.
Trump later denied he had rushed back to work on a ceasefire, telling reporters on Air Force One: “I’m not looking at a ceasefire. We’re looking at better than a ceasefire.”
Asked why he had urged for the evacuation of Tehran, he said: “I just want people to be safe.”
Earlier, the Israeli military had called for some 330,000 residents of a neighborhood in downtown Tehran to evacuate. Tehran is one of the largest cities in the Middle East, with around 10 million people, roughly equivalent to the entire population of Israel. People have been fleeing since hostilities began.
Israel says its sweeping assault on Iran’s top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites and ballistic missile program is necessary to prevent its adversary from getting any closer to building an atomic weapon. The strikes have killed at least 224 people in Iran.
Iran has retaliated by launching more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel. So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel. The Israeli military said a new barrage of missiles was launched on Tuesday, and explosions could be heard in northern Israel.
Shops closed, lines for gas in Iran’s capital
Downtown Tehran appeared to be emptying out early Tuesday, with many shops closed. The ancient Grand Bazaar was also closed, something that only happened in the past during anti-government demonstrations or at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
On the roads out of Tehran to the west, traffic stood bumper to bumper. Many appeared to be heading to the Caspian Sea area. Long lines also could be seen at gas stations in Tehran, with printed placards and boards calling for a “severe” response to Israel visible across the city.
Authorities canceled leave for doctors and nurses as the attacks continue, but insisted everything was under control and did not offer any guidance for the public on what to do.
The Israeli military meanwhile claimed to have killed someone it described as Iran’s top general in a strike on Tehran. Iran did not immediately comment on the reported killing of Gen. Ali Shadmani, who had just been named as the head of the Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, part of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
Iran has named other generals to replace the top leaders of the Guard and the regular armed forces after they were killed in earlier strikes.
Trump leaves G7 early to focus on conflict
Before leaving the summit in Canada, Trump joined the other leaders in a joint statement saying Iran “can never have a nuclear weapon” and calling for a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza.”
French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that discussions were underway on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but Trump appeared to shoot that down in his comments on social media.
Macron “mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a ‘cease fire’ between Israel and Iran,” Trump wrote. “Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.”
Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth headed to the White House Situation Room to meet with the president and his national security team.
Hegseth didn’t provide details on what prompted the meeting but said on Fox News late Monday that the movements were to “ensure that our people are safe.”
Trump said he wasn’t ready to give up on diplomatic talks, and could send Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with the Iranians.
“I may,” he said. “It depends on what happens when I get back.”
Israel says it has ‘aerial superiority’ over Tehran
Israeli military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said Monday his country’s forces had “achieved full aerial superiority over Tehran’s skies.”
The military said it destroyed more than 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers in central Iran, a third of Iran’s total, including multiple launchers just before they launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. It also destroyed two F-14 fighter planes that Iran used to target Israeli aircraft, the military said.
Israeli military officials also said fighter jets had struck 10 command centers in Tehran belonging to Iran’s Quds Force, an elite arm of its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that conducts military and intelligence operations outside Iran.
Israel’s military issued an evacuation warning for a part of central Tehran that houses state TV and police headquarters, as well as three large hospitals, including one owned by the Guard. It has issued similar evacuation warnings for parts of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon ahead of strikes.
On Monday, an Israeli strike hit the headquarters of Iran’s state-run TV station, sending a television anchor fleeing her studio during a live broadcast. The Israeli military said Tuesday it had hit the station because “the broadcast channel was used to spread anti-Israel propaganda.”
Israel says strikes have set back nuclear program
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli strikes have set Iran’s nuclear program back a “very, very long time,” and told reporters he is in daily touch with Trump.
Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful, and the US and others have assessed Tehran has not had an organized effort to pursue a nuclear weapon since 2003. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs should it choose to do so.
So far, Israel has targeted multiple Iranian nuclear program sites but has not been able to destroy Iran’s Fordo uranium enrichment facility.
The site is buried deep underground — and to eliminate it, Israel may need the 30,000-pound (14,000-kilogram) GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a US bunker-busting bomb that uses its weight and sheer kinetic force to reach deeply buried targets. Israel does not have the munition or the bomber needed to deliver it. The penetrator is currently delivered by the B-2 stealth bomber.
No sign of conflict letting up
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, appeared to make a veiled plea Monday for the US to step in and negotiate an end to hostilities.
In a post on X, Araghchi wrote that if Trump is “genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.”
“It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu,” Iran’s top diplomat wrote. “That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy.”
The message to Washington was sent as the latest talks between the US and Iran were canceled over the weekend after Israel’s surprise bombardment.
On Sunday, Araghchi said Iran will stop its strikes if Israel does the same.