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Gaza ceasefire faces hurdle but not collapsing yet, say analysts

This handout image released by the Hamas Media Office on February 22, 2025, shows newly-released Israeli hostage Omer Shem Tov kissing the head of a Hamas fighter shortly after being set free in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip. (AFP)
This handout image released by the Hamas Media Office on February 22, 2025, shows newly-released Israeli hostage Omer Shem Tov kissing the head of a Hamas fighter shortly after being set free in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip. (AFP)
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Updated 25 February 2025

Gaza ceasefire faces hurdle but not collapsing yet, say analysts

Gaza ceasefire faces hurdle but not collapsing yet, say analysts
  • Hamas, in turn, warned that Israel’s decision jeopardizes the “entire agreement,” stopping short of promising a return to fighting
  • Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarised and Hamas removed, while the militant group insisting on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said that if Trump throws his weight behind phase two “then it will happen”

JERUSALEM: Gaza’s fragile five-week truce faces a major hurdle with Israel’s refusal to release Palestinian prisoners, but analysts say the ceasefire is likely to hold as Washington pushes for its extension.
“It’s actually the most complicated crisis since the beginning of the ceasefire,” Palestinian affairs expert Michael Milshtein of Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center told AFP.
While previous obstacles have tested the truce — including Hamas’s threat to stop releasing hostages over alleged violations of the ceasefire including insufficient aid entering Gaza — Milshtein emphasized that “this time, it is even more complicated.”
On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, after militants freed six hostages.
He condemned what he described as “humiliating ceremonies” by Hamas to free hostages in Gaza.
Palestinian militants had in the weeks prior paraded Israeli captives and later displayed black coffins containing deceased hostages on stage, sparking outrage across Israel.
Netanyahu went further on Sunday, warning that Israel was ready to “resume intense fighting at any moment” in the Palestinian territory.

Hamas, in turn, warned that Israel’s decision jeopardizes the “entire agreement,” stopping short of promising a return to fighting.
Yet, despite the escalating rhetoric, both sides appear intent on maintaining the ceasefire, according to Milshtein.
“Hamas really wants to implement phase one of the deal because on Saturday, the IDF (military) is meant to start leaving the Philadelphi Corridor,” he noted, referring to a strategic strip that runs along Gaza’s border with Egypt.
For Israel, Mairav Zonszein, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, said that Netanyahu was also stuck “in the same quagmire of trying to get hostages out while trying to get rid of the people holding those hostages.”
“I think Netanyahu is kind of doing what he does best, which is dragging things out, buying time, trying to see if he can leverage withholding these prisoners,” she said.
Zonszein noted that Israeli public opinion is putting pressure on Netanyahu to uphold the ceasefire, particularly as more hostages are seen “coming out alive.”
Some analysts suggest that Israel’s tougher stance is a calculated negotiating tactic ahead of upcoming talks for the second phase of truce.
“I don’t think the ceasefire will collapse, it’s not in Netanyahu’s interest to have it collapse particularly as hostages are still being held in Gaza,” said Sanam Vakil, director of UK-based think tank Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program.
“What we are witnessing now is political hardball, with them (Israel) trying to up the ante, or increase pressure on Hamas” ahead of the next phase, she said.

Phase two was “always going to be the hardest phase of the negotiations, made worse by the US position and posturing and by the fact there is no coherent Arab plan,” she said.
Trump has stirred controversy by openly suggesting that the United States should take control of Gaza and expel its 2.4 million inhabitants to Egypt and Jordan.
But in recent days he has toned down his view and on Wednesday his special envoy Steve Witkoff is due to arrive in Israel to push forward the phase two talks.
“I think the key to this is the Americans, they will determine what takes place next,” said Alan Mendoza, executive director of the UK-based Henry Jackson Society.
“Trump was the main factor in getting Netanyahu to agree to ceasefire,” he said, noting that the deal was on the table previously but “Trump pushed it and both the Israelis and Hamas have agreed to its terms.”
Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarised and Hamas removed, while the militant group insisting on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said that if Trump throws his weight behind phase two “then it will happen.”
“It’s a tough negotiation round and the odds are we will not be able to agree on a stage two plan but if the Arab states buck up... and take more of an interest given Trump’s Gaza Riveria plans — there’s a possibility we could do it.”


UN rights office says Israeli settlement plan breaks international law

UN rights office says Israeli settlement plan breaks international law
Updated 13 sec ago

UN rights office says Israeli settlement plan breaks international law

UN rights office says Israeli settlement plan breaks international law
The UN human rights office said on Friday an Israeli plan to build to build thousands of new homes between an Israeli settlement in the West Bank and near East Jerusalem was illegal under international law, and would put nearby Palestinians at risk of forced eviction, which it described as a war crime.
Israeli far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Thursday vowed to press on a long-delayed settlement project, saying the move would “bury” the idea of a Palestinian state.
The UN rights office spokesperson said the plan would break the West Bank into isolated enclaves and that it was “a war crime for an occupying power to transfer its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.”
About 700,000 Israeli settlers live among 2.7 million Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Israel annexed East Jerusalem in 1980, a move not recognized by most countries, but has not formally extended sovereignty over the West Bank.
Most world powers say settlement expansion erodes the viability of a two-state solution by breaking up territory the Palestinians seek as part of a future independent state.
The two-state plan envisages a Palestinian state in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, existing side by side with Israel, which captured all three territories in the 1967 Middle East war.
Israel cites historical and biblical ties to the area and says the settlements provide strategic depth and security and that the West Bank is “disputed” not “occupied.”

Israeli far-right minister confronts prominent Palestinian inmate

Israeli far-right minister confronts prominent Palestinian inmate
Updated 15 August 2025

Israeli far-right minister confronts prominent Palestinian inmate

Israeli far-right minister confronts prominent Palestinian inmate
  • Marwan Barghouti, a leading member of the Palestinian Fatah party, has spent more than 20 years behind bars
  • Israel considers him a ‘terrorist’ and convicted him over his role in the second intifada, or uprising, from 2000-2005

JERUSALEM: Israel’s far-right national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir published a video on Friday in which he confronts the most high-profile Palestinian detainee in Israeli custody in his prison cell.

Marwan Barghouti, a leading member of the Palestinian Fatah party, has spent more than 20 years behind bars after being sentenced for his role in anti-Israeli attacks in the early 2000s.

In the clip published by Ben Gvir on X, the minister and two other individuals, including a prison guard, surround Barghouti in a corner of his cell.

“You will not defeat us. Whoever harms the people of Israel, whoever kills children, whoever kills women... we will erase them,” Ben Gvir says in Hebrew.

Barghouti tries to respond but is interrupted by Ben Gvir, who says: “No, you know this. And it’s been the case throughout history.”

The video does not specify where Barghouti is currently being held.

Contacted by AFP, sources close to Ben Gvir said the meeting took place “by chance” in Ganot prison in southern Israel during an inspection visit by the minister, but they would not say when the footage was filmed.

“This morning I read that various ‘senior officials’ in the Palestinian Authority didn’t quite like what I said to arch-terrorist Marwan Barghouti – may his name be erased,” Ben Gvir said in the post accompanying the video on Friday morning.

“So I will repeat it again and again, without apology: whoever messes with the people of Israel, whoever murders our children, whoever murders our women – we will wipe them out. With God’s help.”

Barghouti, who is now in his sixties, was arrested in 2002 by Israel and sentenced to life in 2004 on murder charges.

Israel considers him a “terrorist” and convicted him over his role in the second intifada, or uprising, from 2000-2005.

He often tops opinion polls of popular Palestinian leaders and is sometimes described by his supporters as the “Palestinian Mandela.”

In a statement released by the official Palestinian news agency Wafa, the Palestinian Authority’s foreign ministry denounced “an unprecedented provocation” and described the confrontation as “organized state terrorism.”


Hezbollah chief warns Lebanon government it will not surrender its weapons

Hezbollah chief warns Lebanon government it will not surrender its weapons
Updated 15 August 2025

Hezbollah chief warns Lebanon government it will not surrender its weapons

Hezbollah chief warns Lebanon government it will not surrender its weapons
  • Naim Qassem accuses government of ‘handing’ the country to Israel by pushing for the group’s disarmament
  • ‘The resistance will not surrender its weapons while aggression continues, occupation persists, and we will fight it’

BEIRUT: Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem on Friday accused Lebanon’s government of “handing” the country to Israel by pushing for the group’s disarmament, warning it would fight to keep its weapons.

Qassem spoke in a televised address after meeting Iran’s top security chief Ali Larijani, whose country has long backed the Lebanese militant group.

Hezbollah emerged badly weakened from last year’s war with Israel, and under US pressure the Lebanese government has ordered the army to devise a plan to disarm the group by the end of the year.

Iran, whose so-called “axis of resistance” includes Hezbollah, has also suffered a series of setbacks, most recently in the war with Israel that saw the United States strike its nuclear sites.

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He also warned the Lebanese government against confronting the militant group, saying there would be “no life” in Lebanon in that event.

Qassem said Hezbollah and the Amal movement, its Shiite Muslim ally, had decided to delay any street protests against a US-backed disarmament plan as they still see room for dialogue with the Lebanese government. But he said any future protests could reach the US Embassy in Lebanon.

“The government is implementing an American-Israeli order to end the resistance, even if it leads to civil war and internal strife,” Qassem said.

“The resistance will not surrender its weapons while aggression continues, occupation persists, and we will fight it... if necessary to confront this American-Israeli project no matter the cost,” he said.

Qassem urged the government “not to hand over the country to an insatiable Israeli aggressor or an American tyrant with limitless greed.”


Libya to hold rare local vote in test for divided nation

Libya to hold rare local vote in test for divided nation
Updated 15 August 2025

Libya to hold rare local vote in test for divided nation

Libya to hold rare local vote in test for divided nation
  • Rare municipal elections are seen as a test of democracy in a nation still plagued by division and instability
  • Key eastern cities — including Benghazi, Sirte and Tobruk — have rejected the vote, highlighting the deep rifts between rival administrations

TRIPOLI: Libya is set to hold rare municipal elections on Saturday, in a ballot seen as a test of democracy in a nation still plagued by division and instability.
Key eastern cities — including Benghazi, Sirte and Tobruk — have rejected the vote, highlighting the deep rifts between rival administrations.
The UN mission in Libya, UNSMIL, called the elections “essential to uphold democratic governance” while warning that recent attacks on electoral offices and ongoing insecurity could undermine the process.
“Libyans need to vote and to have the freedom to choose without fear and without being pressured by anyone,” said Esraa Abdelmonem, a 36-year-old mother of three.
“These elections would allow people to have their say in their day-to-day affairs,” she said, adding that it was “interesting to see” how the areas affected by the clashes in May would vote.
Since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled longtime leader Muammar Qaddafi, Libya has remained split between Tripoli’s UN-recognized government, led by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah and its eastern rival administration backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar.
Khaled Al-Montasser, a Tripoli-based international relations professor, called the vote “decisive,” framing it as a test for whether Libya’s factions are ready to accept representatives chosen at the ballot box.
“The elections make it possible to judge whether the eastern and western authorities are truly ready to accept the idea that local representatives are appointed by the vote rather than imposed by intimidation or arms,” he said.
Nearly 380,000 Libyans, mostly from western municipalities, are expected to vote.
Elections had originally been planned in 63 municipalities nationwide — 41 in the west, 13 in the east, and nine in the south — but the High National Elections Commission (HNEC) suspended 11 constituencies in the east and south due to irregularities, administrative issues and pressure from local authorities.
In some areas near Tripoli, voting was also postponed due to problems distributing voter cards.
And on Tuesday, the electoral body said a group of armed men attacked its headquarters in Zliten, some 160 kilometers east of Tripoli.
No casualty figures were given, although UNSMIL said there were some injuries.
UNSMIL said the attack sought to “intimidate voters, candidates and electoral staff, and to prevent them from exercising their political rights to participate in the elections and the democratic process.”
National elections scheduled for December 2021 were postponed indefinitely due to disputes between the two rival powers.
Following Qaddafi’s death and 42 years of autocratic rule, Libya held its first free vote in 2012 to elect 200 parliament members at the General National Congress.
That was followed by the first municipal elections in 2013, and legislative elections in 2014 that saw a low turnout amid renewed violence.
In August that year, a coalition of militias seized Tripoli and installed a government with the backing of Misrata — then a politically influential city some 200 kilometers east of Tripoli — forcing the newly elected GNC parliament to relocate to the east.
The UN then brokered an agreement in December 2015 that saw the creation of the Government of National Accord, in Tripoli, with Fayez Al-Sarraj as its first premier, but divisions in the country have persisted still.
Other municipal elections did take place between 2019 and 2021, but only in a handful of cities.


Germany tells Israeli government to stop West Bank settlement construction

Germany tells Israeli government to stop West Bank settlement construction
Updated 15 August 2025

Germany tells Israeli government to stop West Bank settlement construction

Germany tells Israeli government to stop West Bank settlement construction
  • Germany ‘firmly rejects the Israeli government’s announcements regarding the approval of thousands of new housing units in Israeli settlements in the West Bank’
  • Germany has repeatedly warned the Israeli government to stop settlement construction in the West Bank

BERLIN: Germany on Friday called on the Israeli government to stop settlement construction in the West Bank after Israel’s far-right finance minister said work would start on a plan for thousands of homes that would divide the Palestinian territory.

Germany “firmly rejects the Israeli government’s announcements regarding the approval of thousands of new housing units in Israeli settlements in the West Bank,” said a foreign ministry spokesperson in a statement.

Plans for the “E1” settlement and the expansion of Maale Adumim would further restrict the mobility of the Palestinian population in the West Bank by splitting it in half and cutting the area off from East Jerusalem, said the spokesperson.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced on Thursday that work would start on the long-delayed settlement, a move that his office said would “bury” the idea of a Palestinian state.

In a statement, Smotrich’s spokesperson said the minister had approved the plan to build 3,401 houses for Israeli settlers between an existing settlement in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

Germany has repeatedly warned the Israeli government to stop settlement construction in the West Bank, which violates international law and UN Security Council resolutions.

Such moves complicate steps toward a negotiated two-state solution and end to Israeli occupation of the West Bank, said the spokesperson.