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LONDON: When Bashar Assad’s regime suddenly collapsed early last month, displaced families scattered across the region felt a wave of relief, confident they could at last safely return to ancestral homes abandoned during Syria’s 13-year civil war.

However, with tens of thousands having once again packed up their lives in their adopted communities to make the journey home, many are returning to find their once-familiar neighborhoods disfigured by war and demographic changes.

Within the first month after Assad’s ouster on Dec. 8, more than 125,000 of the 5.5 million Syrians displaced to neighboring countries since 2011 returned to their war-torn homeland, according to UN figures.

The International Organization for Migration announced earlier this month that it is increasing its donor appeal for Syria to $73.2 million to assist more than 1.1 million people over the next six months.

These developments highlight the immense challenges associated with the mass repatriation of displaced persons, despite the assistance of host governments in Lebanon, Turkiye, and Jordan.

“Returning to Syria once felt like a far-fetched dream. None of us believed we could go back anytime soon,” Loujein Haj Youssef, a Paris-based Syrian journalist, told Arab News.

But even after Assad’s downfall, “the country still lacks critical components — security, services, and infrastructure — all of which are vital for families to return.”

Syria’s civil war created one of the world’s largest displacement crises since the Second World War, forcing more than 14 million people to flee to neighboring nations and beyond.

Despite harsh conditions and even abuses in host countries, many were hesitant to return, fearing arrest, persecution, or forced military service. After Assad’s downfall, however, thousands flocked to the borders.

For many others, security remains a major concern. Rema Jamous Imseis, the UN refugee agency’s director for the Middle East and North Africa, described the situation in Syria as “fluid and far from stable.”

She told a press briefing on Dec. 17: “In the past three weeks, we have seen more than 1 million people forced to flee their homes, thousands of Syrian refugees returning, and thousands of Syrians fleeing the country.”

Noting that the change of regime does not necessarily signal an end to Syria’s humanitarian emergency, she stressed that “Syrians inside and outside the country still need protection and support.”

The Syrian opposition offensive launched on Nov. 27, which led to Assad’s sudden downfall, has triggered a new wave of displacement. By Dec. 12, it had forced about 1.1 million people from their homes, according to the UN’s humanitarian agency OCHA.

In recent days, the central governorate of Homs has seen an increase in armed attacks. On Jan. 24, “unidentified gunmen wearing military uniforms” executed 13 people and arrested 53 others in a rural district, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.

Amid this turmoil, journalist Haj Youssef warned that fear of “another civil war” is among the main hindrances to the return of displaced Syrians.

“The current divisions, the absence of proper institutions and laws, and reprisals — particularly by groups perceived to be affiliated with the current administration — create deep uncertainty,” she told Arab News.

“This is especially troubling amid the recent sectarian tensions in areas like Homs and Latakia,” she added, warning that “if the chaos persists, many fear that it could lead to a renewed civil war.”

The international community has voiced concerns about the wellbeing of Syria’s various sects after Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham took control of Syria’s capital, Damascus.

Human Rights Watch highlighted in a recent statement that the armed groups that led the 12-day offensive, including HTS and factions of the Syrian National Army, were implicated in human rights abuses and war crimes.

In response, HTS said that the rights and freedoms of religious and ethnic minorities would be protected, the BBC reported.

Interim Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week that “no one should be punished because of their origin, social or religious background, or affiliation with certain groups.”

However, since early 2025, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has documented 88 murders across 10 governorates that are classified as retaliatory actions, and a further 185 killings, of which 106 were the result of sectarian affiliations.

These crimes include three in Damascus, 14 in Rif Dimashq, 89 in Homs, 45 in Hama, 15 in Latakia, four in Aleppo, nine in Tartus, four in Idlib, one in Sweida, and one in Deir Ezzor.

“There are fears that the persistence of this chaos may be a deliberate decision by the new administration, which is deeply concerning,” Haj Youssef said.

The EU has voiced similar concerns. Earlier this month, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said sanctions could be lifted if Syria’s new rulers took steps to form an inclusive government that protects minorities.

Western sanctions have crippled Syria’s economy, and the nationwide collapse, compounded by widespread destruction, poses a major hurdle to the return of displaced Syrians.

“One of the main challenges preventing refugees from returning today is the country’s shattered economy,” said Haj Youssef. “There must be viable prospects for livelihoods to encourage their return.”

Over a decade of civil war and strict Western sanctions, alongside other factors, have taken a toll on Syria’s economy. From 2010 to 2021, its gross domestic product shrank by more than half, according to official Syrian data cited by the World Bank in spring 2024.

Those returning to war-torn areas, such as Yarmouk Camp in Damascus, were met with piles of rubble and the ashes of what had once been their homes. Stripped of the essentials for life, these areas had been left uninhabitable.

“The biggest obstacle is returning to homes which were totally destroyed,” Fadi Al-Dairi, co-founder and regional director of the Syrian-British charity Hand in Hand for Aid and Development, told Arab News.

Rebuilding Syria is estimated to cost between $250 billion and $400 billion, according to media reports.

Recalling his visit to newly accessible areas, Al-Dairi said: “When I visited Yarmouk Camp, Darayya, the Al-Razi Fields, and several areas around Damascus, they were totally flattened. They were demolished. They are unrecognizable.

“So, we’re looking at housing, lands, and property rights, which are lost, and this will need the government to interfere.”

Al-Dairi said many displaced Syrians were keen to return but “are quite reluctant to rehabilitate their homes” as “it does cost money.” He highlighted that rehabilitating a home could cost between $3,000 to $20,000.

“The majority of families say, ‘Why do I have to do it?’ There’s going to be reconstruction. They assume reconstruction will include private properties. But from our experience, the NGOs will only rehabilitate homes.”

With 90 percent of Syria’s population living below the poverty line, public services in former regime-controlled areas in poor condition, and soaring unemployment rates, humanitarian needs remain overwhelming.

Following a recent visit to Syria, Ted Chaiban, deputy executive director for humanitarian action and supply operations at the UN children’s agency, UNICEF, said that “an estimated 16.7 million people, including 7.5 million children need humanitarian assistance.

“Almost 40 percent of hospitals and health facilities are partly or completely non-functional,” he added in a statement on Jan. 23. “Nearly 13.6 million people require improved water, sanitation, and hygiene services.”

HIHFAD’s Al-Dairi said that “in previously regime-held areas, the hospitals, schools, and various services were totally neglected … and we also have a lack of jobs.”

Collaborating with the interim government to address these diverse needs is another challenge.

“The government is a transitional government. It cannot pay wages,” Al-Dairi said. “We have a difference in the wages between various areas, between those previously held by the regime and those in the northwest.”

He highlighted concerns about “people leaving Damascus, for example, to come to Idlib for job opportunities.

“When we talk about Idlib, we have electricity here 24/7, but in Damascus, you’re talking about two hours a day — maximum one hour every 11 hours. It’s not enough.

“In areas previously held by the Assad regime, there are hardly any jobs. Most factories were shut down because the regime told business owners: ‘You either take me as a partner without paying anything or close your business.’

“In the northwest, it’s a free economy. And next to our warehouse, we have an industrial city. It’s huge. You just drive for miles and miles full of businesses, and that’s what we’re lacking in areas previously held by the regime.”

Even if destroyed areas are rehabilitated and public services improved, reconciling local communities will be challenging after many families lost loved ones or endured persecution during the civil war.

Al-Dairi said families may struggle to forgive once they discover that those responsible for their detention or the killing of their loved ones are living among them. However, his field visit left him hopeful that people were eager to move on and would seek justice through proper channels.

“Those I spoke to, I asked: ‘Are you going to take revenge?’ They said: ‘No, not revenge, but we’ll report them and make sure justice takes its course,’” he said.

“So, hopefully, we’re talking about transitional justice, but it remains a challenge due to high corruption rates among judges. That’s something the transitional government is working on.”

He added: “There is a sense that we need to forgive so we can move on, but at the same time, we should not forgive people who committed crimes.

“Reconciliation will take time, but it’s happening quicker than expected. Families are fed up. They just want to move on. They just want to return to their homes, if they can, to plant their land and find jobs.”

Syrian journalist Haj Youssef says it remains unclear where Syria is headed and that hope hinges on the performance of the interim government.

“In the short term, it may take a year or two for the picture to become clearer — whether sanctions will be lifted and reconstruction projects will begin,” she said.

“However, this largely depends on the performance of the current transitional authority and the direction in which the state is heading.”

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