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LONDON: Hopes were high when the US-brokered ceasefire took effect in Gaza on Oct. 10, bringing about the first real pause in fighting in many months and the genuine prospect of peace. Events over the weekend, however, have cast those hopes into doubt.

Having previously declared the deal “the historic dawn of a new Middle East,” US President Donald Trump insisted on Sunday that the ceasefire is still holding after Israel launched deadly strikes on Hamas positions, accusing the group of violating the truce.

Trump, who brokered the deal, downplayed the role of Hamas’ leadership, instead blaming “some rebels within.” He added: “We want to make sure that it’s going to be very peaceful with Hamas. It’s going to be handled toughly, but properly.”

Gaza’s civil defense agency said at least 45 people were killed in the strikes. The Israeli army said it had “renewed enforcement of the ceasefire” but would “respond firmly to any violation.” Hamas denied breaching the truce, accusing Israel of fabricating “pretexts” to resume the war.

Meanwhile, Hamas politburo member Mohammed Nazzal has told Reuters that the group is only committed to a ceasefire lasting up to five years, with guarantees for what happens next depending on Palestinians being given “horizons and hope” for statehood.

Trump had unveiled the ceasefire deal to great fanfare with a whirlwind visit to Israel and Egypt last week to formally declare an end to the war at a summit in Sharm El-Sheikh attended by dozens of world leaders.

However, the situation on the ground has remained volatile. Israel warns it will resume major operations if its terms are not met, while Hamas is already reasserting control across the embattled enclave.

Tensions escalated on Oct. 16 when Israel threatened renewed fighting after Hamas said it could not recover more remains of deceased hostages without specialized equipment to reach bodies trapped under the rubble.

Since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that triggered Israel’s retaliatory war on Gaza, at least 90 percent of the territory’s civilian infrastructure has been leveled, the BBC reported on Oct. 13.

Under the first phase of Trump’s 20-point peace plan, Hamas released all 20 surviving hostages, while Israel freed nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.

This phase also calls for unrestricted humanitarian access to enter Gaza. However, Israeli officials said the Rafah crossing into Egypt — critical for relief efforts — would open “at a later stage” — not on Oct. 16 as planned.

As aid stalls, Hamas security forces have returned to the streets, clashing with armed groups and killing alleged gang members in what they call an effort to restore order in areas vacated by Israeli troops.

Video released in mid-October showed Hamas fighters executing eight blindfolded men accused of being “collaborators and outlaws.”

While some Palestinians reportedly welcome the crackdown after months of chaos, the show of force risks undermining the fragile truce.

As both sides test the ceasefire’s limits, analysts question whether Trump’s proclaimed “new Middle East” marks a genuine turning point or merely another brief pause in a conflict with no real end in sight.

Firas Maksad, director for Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group, said that even among attendees of the Gaza peace summit in Sharm El-Sheikh on Oct. 13, “there are a myriad of questions about what comes next.”

He told CNN on Oct. 14 that there are “a lot of gaps still to be filled,” including the structure of a security mechanism in postwar Gaza.

Much, he said, will depend on “sheer political will,” which includes Washington pushing the next phase, Israel’s prime minister managing his right-wing coalition, and Hamas ceding governance while refusing to disarm.

“So much is riding on the sheer political will and investment — the political investment that President Trump has made in seeing that ceasefire through fruition in the various phases ahead,” Maksad said.

Indeed, key questions remain unanswered. Whether Israel and Hamas have agreed on postwar governance, reconstruction, or disarmament remains unclear.

Chris Doyle, director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding, said “the parties have not reached an agreement,” adding that first, “we need to define who the parties really are.”

“The agreement has been between the US and Israel, between Donald Trump and (Israeli) Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu — and then Hamas, on behalf of all Palestinians, is meant to sign off on the issue of reconstruction and governance,” Doyle told Arab News.

“But at the same time, Hamas is meant to have no role at all in the future of the Gaza Strip,” he said, arguing that this is “a contradiction.”

“It means a party that the sponsors of this agreement consider to be beyond the pale, unfit to rule Gaza, are being given the authority and legitimacy to agree to a deal that defines the future of Gaza,” Doyle said.

He said a legitimate solution must involve the Palestinian Authority. “There should be a deal that involves the Palestinian Authority — the State of Palestine — on the future of Gaza,” he said.

Doyle noted that all Palestinian factions agree Palestinians must lead reconstruction efforts, supported by international donors.

“There is not a single Palestinian faction or leader who believes that it should not be Palestinians who determine the nature of reconstruction, its priorities, and who carries it out under what terms,” he said.

“Every single Palestinian political figure will agree that it must be Palestinians in charge of that, albeit with, of course, international assistance, advice and donor funding.”

Long-term stability, he said, depends on Palestinians governing themselves across all Occupied Territories, making the two-state solution a critical step.

Governance “cannot be solely imposed from the outside — at least not for the medium term,” he said. “There needs to be a legitimate process whereby Palestinians are in control of their destiny, not just in Gaza, but also within the West Bank.”

While some analysts highlight the lack of clarity on governance, others point to unequal pressure on the warring parties.

Muhammed Shehada, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued that the delay in reaching a ceasefire resulted from insufficient pressure on Netanyahu, not Hamas.

“Hamas was under immense pressure — inside Gaza, in Qatar, in Turkiye … they were hammered very heavily; Gaza was going through a genocide,” he told Arab News. It’s the lack of pressure on Netanyahu that prevented the deal for so long.”

He said the current agreement mirrors proposals dating back to December 2023, involving Hamas stepping down from governance, an administrative committee taking over, the release of hostages, suspension of operations, and a gradual withdrawal.

“Once Netanyahu was finally pressured, he folded,” Shehada said. “It was only a process of persuasion — telling him it would be good if you signed this deal; it wouldn’t be so bad if you signed that deal.”

So far, only the first phase of Trump’s plan is being implemented. The thorniest issues — including Hamas’ disarmament and Gaza’s future governance — remain unresolved.

Observers now debate whether Trump’s claim that peace was achieved through US support for Israel’s decimation of Iranian proxies holds up — or whether optimism should be tempered given the mixed results in Lebanon and the resilience of Iran’s regional allies.

Despite suffering severe blows, both Hamas and Hezbollah have refused to disarm. On Oct. 11, a Hamas official told AFP that disarmament is “off the table” and “not up for discussion.”

Trump, however, insisted on Oct. 14 that Hamas will be forced to disarm. “If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them and it will happen quickly and perhaps violently,” he said.

Maksad said Hamas is willing to hand over governance to a technocratic administration, but not its weapons.

“It’s a scenario that was not too different from where Hezbollah was in Lebanon for many years,” he told CNN on Oct. 9. “They don’t bear any of the responsibility of providing for the people, but that they’re the shadow force that maintains the weapons.”

Still, Maksad said a repeat of that model is unlikely. “There is a need for some creative diplomacy,” he added, referring to suggestions that Egypt could play a role in holding Hamas’ weapons under international supervision.

Hezbollah’s own disarmament remains unresolved in Lebanon.

After the Iran-backed militia’s mauling by Israel in September 2024, the Lebanese government agreed to a phased plan placing all weapons under state control by the end of the year — driven by US pressure and the need for aid.

However, Hezbollah has rejected the plan. “We will never abandon our weapons, nor will we relinquish them,” Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said on Sept. 27, pledging to “confront any project that serves Israel.”

The group continues to demand Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

Tel Aviv maintains control over five hilltop positions near the Blue Line, citing “strategic value” and pledges to occupy them indefinitely, even though the November 2024 ceasefire agreement requires Israel to withdraw its forces within 60 days of implementation.

Given the ongoing volatility, Doyle said that it is “totally premature to see the Middle East somehow all at peace.”

“The very idea that President Trump and the US really had a handle in creating the right environment regionally for peace I think should be treated with extreme caution,” he said.

“The tensions are very much there, and not least in the West Bank, which people seem to be ignoring at the moment, where we have seen 999 Palestinians killed since Oct. 7, 2023,” he added, citing figures from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Doyle said the region faces “a massive escalation in tensions,” pointing to Israel’s military presence on Lebanese and Syrian territory and ongoing clashes with Iran-backed groups such as the Houthis in Yemen.

Israel took control of parts of southwestern Syria after the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime last December, declaring the 1974 Disengagement Agreement void and establishing military outposts deep inside Syrian territory.

Having suffered major blows in its own 12-day war with Israel, not to mention the US strikes on its nuclear sites earlier this year, Iran’s regional influence has dramatically declined.

Shehada said Iran’s “influence on Hamas’ long-term thinking is limited.”

Some Hamas leaders once envisioned a “multi-front confrontation” involving coordinated attacks by Iran, Hezbollah, and allied groups across the region — but “that vision never materialized,” he said. “Hezbollah was quickly neutralized and forced into a ceasefire, and Iran stepped back.

“The concept of a multi-front war had already collapsed long before Trump ordered strikes on Iran. Earlier confrontations between Israel and Iran had resulted in limited exchanges — sporadic bombardments and retaliations — that both sides soon agreed to end through ceasefires.

“These episodes revealed Iran’s priorities. Tehran was unwilling to risk national destruction for Gaza’s sake; its main concern was self-preservation.”

While the Gaza ceasefire has offered a desperately-needed pause after months of devastation, key issues like Hamas’ disarmament and governance remain unresolved.

And although Trump’s plan has raised justifiable hopes for a “new Middle East,” one question lingers: Is this the start of a lasting peace for the region, or just another brief lull in a seemingly endless conflict?

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said Monday that he would give Hamas a chance to honor the Gaza truce deal with Israel, but warned the group would be “eradicated” if it fails to do so.

“We made a deal with Hamas that they’re going to be very good, they’re going to behave, they’re going to be nice,” Trump told reporters at the White House as he hosted Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

“And if they’re not, we’re going to go and we’re going to eradicate them, if we have to. They’ll be eradicated, and they know that.”

Trump’s comments came as two of his top envoys met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after weekend violence threatened to wreck the fragile ceasefire the US president brokered nearly two weeks ago.

Trump however insisted that American forces would not be involved against Hamas, saying dozens of countries that have agreed to join an international stabilization forces for Gaza would “love to go in.”

“In addition, you have Israel would go in in two minutes, if I asked them to go in,” Trump said.

“But right now, we haven’t said that. We’re going to give it a little chance, and hopefully there will be a little less violence. But right now, you know, they’re violent people.”

Trump said that Hamas was now far weaker, especially given that regional backer Iran was now unlikely to step in on its behalf following US and Israeli strikes earlier this year.