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DUBAI: Afghan refugees are returning in their thousands — few of them by choice or with a destination in mind. Many of the youngest have never set foot in Afghanistan before. Others are returning to find their homes and livelihoods no longer exist.

What were once considered places of refuge from the unrelenting turmoil back home, neighboring states are now expelling Afghans in waves of forced returns that are pushing crisis-wracked Afghanistan to the brink.

According to Babar Baloch, global spokesperson for the UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, more than 2.1 million Afghans have returned or been forced back to Afghanistan this year alone, including 1.6 million from Iran and more than 352,000 from Pakistan.

Sami Fakhouri, head of delegation for Afghanistan at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, witnessed the impact first-hand.

“We are anticipating that an additional 1 million people, possibly more, may return from Iran to Afghanistan by the end of this year,” he told a briefing in Geneva. “The majority didn’t have a say in coming back. They were put on buses and driven to the border.”

Fakhouri said he had seen busloads of families being dropped off at the Islam Qala border in Herat province in recent days, many with no idea where to go. He also sounded the alarm over a critical funding shortfall.

The IFRC’s $31.4 million appeal to support returnees is only 10 percent funded. “Whether we can maintain support at this pace is a real concern,” he said.

At the same time, Afghanistan is in no position to absorb the influx of people after four decades of war, occupation, civil unrest and economic crisis have left the country extremely fragile.

The US military withdrawal and the return of the Taliban government in 2021 led to Afghanistan’s global isolation, a freeze on foreign aid and assets, and the near-collapse of public services.

Compounding these challenges is one of the worst droughts Afghanistan has seen in decades, which has devastated crops, depleted water sources, and crippled rural livelihoods.

With more than half the population reliant on agriculture, many returnees have little to go back to in their home villages — forcing them to remain in transit areas or drift toward overcrowded cities.

Aid agencies warn that without climate-resilient recovery plans, the drought will deepen food insecurity and drive even more internal displacement.

UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, more than 2.1 million Afghans have returned or been forced back to Afghanistan this year alone

Baloch described the expulsions as “a broader, worrying regional trend,” adding that “refugee-hosting countries have issued return orders with deadlines for Afghans to depart, or face deportation.”

Since those announcements, the situation for Afghans in both Iran and Pakistan has deteriorated rapidly.

These mass returns follow a shift in regional policy, beginning in March when Iran issued a deadline for undocumented Afghans to leave or face arrest.

In June, Pakistan launched its second phase of deportations targeting unregistered Afghans. Both countries cited national security concerns and internal pressure to expel large refugee populations.

Pakistan has defended its forced expulsions, with Talal Chaudhry, an adviser to Islamabad’s Interior Ministry, stating in April that the policy targets only “illegal foreigners.”

In February, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan rejected claims that Afghan nationals were being mistreated during the repatriation process.

“In this connection, we also extensively engaged the Afghan side to ensure the smooth repatriation of Afghan nationals,” he told Voice of America.

Iran, meanwhile, has justified its expulsions as a response to national security and economic pressures, particularly following its recent conflict with Israel. Rhetoric on social media has increasingly blamed Afghans for shortages and social issues.

Abdul Rahman Rashid, the Taliban government’s deputy minister for refugees and repatriation, has rebuked host countries for the mass expulsions. And described the removal of Afghans as a “serious violation of international norms, humanitarian principles, and Islamic values.”

“The scale and manner in which Afghan refugees have been forced to return to their homeland is something Afghanistan has never before experienced in its history,” Rashid said in Kabul on July 31.

For the hundreds of thousands now crossing back into Afghanistan each month, the journey does not end at the border. Many are stepping into a future marked by uncertainty, deprivation and loss, without hope, safety or dignity.

Even so, the pace of returns has surged in recent weeks.

On July 4 alone, more than 50,000 people crossed into Afghanistan from Iran — a dramatic increase from the daily average of 5,000 between January and June.

From July 10 to 16, the average was more than 29,000 per day. Inevitably, the scale of arrivals has overwhelmed aid operations at border crossings.

“Our teams are at the borders, receiving and assisting streams of exhausted, hungry, and scared people every day,” Baloch told Arab News.

“Staff and structures are absolutely inundated,” he said, adding that the UN agency has deployed additional personnel and is distributing essential relief items, hot meals, and emergency financial assistance to meet immediate needs.

“But amid funding constraints, and given the scale and pace of returns, we will not be able to sustain support for more than a few weeks,” said Baloch.

In addition to the operational burden, the nature of these returns has raised serious concerns. Many of those arriving say they had little choice.

Baloch described the situation as “a complex protection crisis,” noting that returns are taking place under difficult and often involuntary conditions.

He said many Afghans felt forced to leave after seeing others deported, and “returnees who arrived in the country in recent months have been sharing concerning stories of increased restrictions, harassment and discrimination.”

Once back, many find themselves in provinces that lack even the most basic services, forcing thousands into temporary transit sites, informal settlements, or already strained households. Many arrive without identity papers, making access to support even more difficult.

“Immense challenges lie ahead for returnees — from accessing documentation, housing, healthcare and education, to rebuilding their lives in a country they do not know,” said Baloch.

Those challenges are already visible. Shelter is scarce, and schools and clinics are either closed or inaccessible to women and girls. Meanwhile, job opportunities are limited — especially for those who have spent years or decades abroad.

“For women and girls in particular, life in Afghanistan brings extreme restrictions,” said Baloch.

Under the Taliban government, most secondary schools and universities remain closed to girls. Women are banned from most forms of employment, including in the nongovernmental organization sector. For many returnee women, it means a life of near-total invisibility.

Even female aid workers have been forced into the shadows. One Afghan humanitarian worker, speaking anonymously to a UN publication, described living in fear while continuing to serve her community.

“I feel depressed,” she said. “As an aid worker, I don’t feel safe, and I am afraid for my life… I am worried that I might be targeted because of my job.”

She described being stopped at checkpoints, harassed for not having a male guardian, and being unable to access work or support systems freely.

“It is so unfair to be deprived of your rights because of your gender. Working is not only my dream or a human right, it is also the way I support my family. Women are half of a country … Let us work, let us learn, let us live.”

Aid workers have also reported a growing number of unaccompanied or separated children among recent returnees — some born abroad and unable to navigate legal systems or school enrolment.

Data for June published by UNICEF, the UN children’s fund, indicates that more than 5,000 unaccompanied or separated Afghan children returned from Iran, many arriving without guardians or legal identity.

The lack of functioning child protection mechanisms places these vulnerable children at risk of exploitation, statelessness, and abuse at a critical stage in their lives.

Human rights experts have also warned of broader risks facing returnees.

Richard Bennett, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan, has said the nation “is not a safe country for returnees, given the constantly deteriorating human rights situation since the Taliban seized control.”

Rights groups have documented cases in which returnees — particularly those with foreign residency or links to international organizations — have faced interrogation or detention upon arrival, fueling fears of surveillance and reprisals.

Despite urgent warnings from aid agencies, the international response has fallen short. The UNHCR has appealed for $71 million to support returnees in the region over a nine-month period.

The IFRC and other aid actors have made separate appeals for immediate assistance at border crossings and for longer-term reintegration support. But donor interest remains weak, with many countries reducing their funding to Afghanistan over governance concerns and competing global crises.

Roza Otunbayeva, the UN secretary-general’s special representative for Afghanistan, called the mass returns “a test of our collective humanity,” warning of further displacement, famine, and instability without urgent action.

She called for an “integrated approach” that combines emergency aid with long-term support for return areas, and stressed that regional dialogue with Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian states is essential to ensure returns remain voluntary, safe, and dignified.

Baloch echoed those concerns. “We are in touch with the authorities in Iran and Pakistan. UNHCR urges countries in the region to ensure protection for Afghans and that returns to Afghanistan are voluntary, safe, and dignified.”

“We are also calling on the international community to urgently and substantially increase funding — to meet both critical needs at the border upon arrival, and provide longer-term assistance to help returnees settle in Afghanistan,” he said.

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: India hopes trade talks with the US will continue even as the US hiked tariffs on its exports to 50 percent due to New Delhi’s purchase of sanctioned Russian oil, two lawmakers said on Monday, citing a briefing to a parliamentary panel on foreign affairs.

Last week, President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods due to Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil, bringing the total duty on Indian exports to the US to 50 percent — among the highest of any American trading partner.

“Our relations with the US are multi-dimensional, and should not be seen only through the prism of trade,” one of the lawmakers said, citing the foreign secretary’s briefing to the panel.

Shashi Tharoor, an opposition Congress party leader, who heads the panel, said trade talks would continue.

“As of now, there is no change in the existing plans for the sixth round,” he said, referring to a scheduled visit of a US trade delegation to New Delhi from August 25.

Earlier, junior finance minister, Pankaj Chaudhary told lawmakers that about 55 percent of India’s merchandise exports to the United States would be covered by the new tariff.

His estimate factored in the initial 25 percent levy, he said in a written response to a lawmaker’s query.

“The Department of Commerce is engaged with all stakeholders” for their assessment of the situation, Chaudhary added.

Goods trade between the United States and India — the world’s biggest and fifth-largest economies, respectively — was worth about $87 billion in the last fiscal year, according to Indian government estimates.

The panel separately voiced concerns over Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir’s reported remarks on nuclear threats in South Asia during a visit to the US

“Nuclear blackmail will not work with India, and no party, or representative disagrees with this view,” Tharoor said, adding the external affairs ministry had condemned the comments.